Sony's clearly hoping Horizon: Zero Dawn becomes a hit, but how much of a success is still up for debate. A report from SuperData seems particularly bullish about the open world adventure's chances, with CEO Joost van Dreunen predicting that the new intellectual property could sell six million units this year alone – before rising to eight million beyond 2017.
The source cites great review scores and aggressive marketing as the theory behind the prediction, but we think it's a little too strong. It's worth remembering that as of last Christmas, mega-blockbuster Uncharted 4: A Thief's End had moved 8.7 million copies. But that game's part of a more established brand and has been bundled to Hell and back, so it's unlikely Aloy's inaugural outing will get that high.
We reckon the platform holder would be absolutely ecstatic should the role-playing release reach four million units when all's said and done, but it's clearly the inevitable sequel that will have it rubbing its hands. How many copies do you think Horizon: Zero Dawn will sell? Can it become one of Sony's biggest franchises? Pretend you're Michael Pachter in the comments section below.
[source gamespot.com]
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Id like it to, and I hope it does really well for itself as it has promise, and I always say even if the first one has problems, that's what sequels are for.
I want to see March 10th though, because I still think this will outsell /that/ game.
Hard to predict crunched in the date range of the Zelda and Nier/Mass Effect releases. Sony has marketed Horizon well and it's pretty consistently anticipated within gaming circles. How this translates to the public will be interesting question. I'll go: 2.5 mil the first month
Mid 2017: 3.5 mil
Through the end of 2017 (especially if bundled with Pro and regular and Pro PS consoles at some point)
4.5 mil
I hope it doubles my predictions especially first month.
I think it would have to be bundled very heavily over Christmas for it to hit this.
It'll do well but 8 million is a lot.
I think 4 million in the first few months, then later in the year to be discounted to $24.99 and boost sales by another 2 million
I don't see it but I wish them the best. Nice to see established devs trying a new IP. Splatoon sold millions, new IP, low install base so who knows.
It'll definitely get a few holiday bundle deals. Highly doubt it'll reach 8 million though, at least at full price. Given the recent trends, it'll be $30 before the summer.
If they keep marketing going, after the very strong reviews, then yes! People love new franchises and I don't think Zelda is going to affect sales that much...people already with PS4 will not choose Zelda over this...and if they do I think they are making a mistake!
Switch seems more and more like Wii U and seems destined to flop again but that's a talk for another day...
Hope Horizon does good!
They do have that Slim bundle with Horizon to sell... It's not a Pro, but not everyone is interested in Pro anyway. I do think that 8M is a lot, but it could hit that after a few years.
@AFCC I have a PS4 and I'm choosing Zelda over this. I mean, it looks great, and I'll play it when it gets discounted later this year, but Zelda is Zelda You have to go aaaaaall the way back to 1987 to find a mainline Zelda game with a Metacritic score less than Horizon's. The two franchises are incomparable.
@BLP_Software well it should. If it doesn't that's just sad
@RedMageLanakyn Well the article did say 6 million this year, the rest later, and considering Sony released TLG for $60 in November and dropped MSRP to $40 recently I really doubt the 8 million was based on $60.
I'm really not good at guessing numbers, but this game should do well after all the hype - Sony sacrificed Gravity Rush 2 on the altar of stealth releases - and Sony seems to be doing a really good job of rolling this one out so far - no Day 1 DLC, no season pass, no further delays that I can even recall. Week 1 sales should be good, a few weeks later maybe a demo, then some free DLC "gift", then maybe start talking up a true story DLC, then maybe a sale, then drop the price, then show something at E3, maybe a statue or something just to remind people to buy it. This is going to be the game that won't go away. It won't reach insane GTA recognition but Sony is going to make sure it keeps selling until probably GoW, whatever it takes.
And 50 million install base isn't bad. Wii U has 13 and Switch 2 at launch. Though more people than that may buy the 2 BotW special editions just for the swag, and a copy of the game on Wii U when they can't find a Switch in store for weeks. Skyward Sword only sold 4 million on 100 million Wii, so it might be slipping, but BotW seems likely to top that.
@rjejr Of course that's if Nintendo actually makes an effort to create enough copies of BotW and not limit the stock
I'm sure Switch will get a few million, but I reckon the WiiU version is going to be a VERY limited release. I have it pre-ordered from three(!) different retailers to make sure I secure a copy. Nintendo games also tend tohold their price tags for years after release, so Horizon will be an impulse buy when it does drop in price. I do agree that Sony will definitely market Horizon aggressively, and are making good moves so far with it's release.
It would be great if the game did sell 8m which doesn't sound a lot compared to the 55m+ of consoles sold. I would be surprised if it doesn't sell well though as its not exactly snuck up on us. Since its reveal, its won the 'Most anticipated' and 'best in show' on many critics/review sites and it seems that its reviewing well with many saying its exceeded expectation - which is incredible considering the anticipation.
Some say its the most significant release on PS4 - a better game than Uncharted 4 even as the combat is better and deeper, the platforming and traversal is better, the game is bigger and the 'story' has more 'Wow' moments. Ok so some dialogue may not be the best and facial animations may not be at ND levels but considering the size and scale of the game, that's not surprising.
Personally I can't wait. 7days and my most anticipated release is finally here!!
I cancelled my Switch pre order on the basis of a couple of factors, firstly Zelda was the only game I wanted until Mario comes out, secondly Horizon comes out just 2 days earlier and I don't have time to play both. For me Zelda hasn't had a great game since Wind Waker and Nintendo games seem to get easy praise which isn't always deserved.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if this does sell very well as whilst it's disguised as an open world RPG the combat alone should appeal more to the mainstream than this type of game normally would. That and it looks to be the first of the new breed of games which really take advantage of the Pro and was actually the game which made me want to upgrade. Bring on next week
@ZurapiiYohane64 Horizon Dawn is the best bet
It sounds like the definition of a AAA single player focused game done right, so I hope it sells by the bucket load. No microtransactions, no season pass, no shoehorned multiplayer, and 50 hours of game? I'm in. It bucks the trend of gouging players from day one.
@TeslaChippie Zelda games are great and all but please...a new franchise with so much creativity is more than worth the money...
Besides the new Zelda seems a little bland, in my opinion
2-3m în the first six months, then we'll see how it's bundled. I'd love it to hit 8m, just can't see it though. It'd have to outsell all other rpg's on PS4 by quite some margin. about half of uncharted 4's sales came in November / December last year when every retailer under the sun bundled it.
Well, we'll see I guess. Seems like a stretch but would love to see it do well.
All sounds impressive until you compare it to GTA5!
with the amount of PS4s out there it should be doing around the 5 million mark by years end, the advertising has been everywhere for it I've seen way more than Uncharted 4 had an that was the must I'd seen in years for a PlayStation exclusive game.
on it outselling Zelda BOTW - I'm a massive Zelda fan but Horizon will blow it out of the water in terms of week one sales personally. launching on a new console (which we don't have any idea how many the UK will get) & a machine that's been dead in the water for the last couple of years should be a win for Sony. should be.
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@Thegentleman I am not sure if you are new to the world of Sony, but unless a game tanks, there is no way its going to drop to $24.99 (USD) in its first year. Even games that tank right out the door (Tony Hawk, 32% Metacritic, 3.5/10 IGN, etc...) took forever to drop to $29.99 (USD).
@AFCC I have a PS4, and I'm choosing Zelda over this. I know several people who are doing the same. Horizon looks interesting, and I'll definitely pick it up at some point, but BotW looks like everything I've ever wanted in an open-world video game.
@thedevilsjester it could happen, just look at last year games for example doom released for 59.99 earlier in the year just to lower 19.99 around winter (In time for black friday)
@Thegentleman Doom (PS4) is currently $39.99 (USD). It was on sale for a very short period of time in (relatively) limited quantities, and then soon after jumped back up in price. Sales like this are too unpredictable and limited in scope. You cannot really count this as "a game dropping in price".
@Ralizah Really? I kind of want Zelda too, but...it seems just another Zelda to me!!
I'm with @get2sammyb on this one...
@AFCC BotW is the furthest thing away from "just another Zelda" that I've ever seen. Nearly every aspect of the Zelda formula has been done away with or changed in some way.
The only previous Zelda title this resembles in any way is the original The Legend of Zelda for the NES.
I'l nab Horizon at some point, because it does look interesting, but nothing about it really grabs me and screams "Play me now!"
I'm unsure why but I have no interest in HZD, like literally none. Its quite confusing really, as I like Dinosaurs, Girls and Bows so why isn't it getting me hyped?
Maybe more people feel the same way so 2.75 million for me with more copies selling in drabs and drabs leading upto Xmas with maybe 3.5 million lifetime.
@Ralizah I'm not against BoTW in any way, don't get me wrong...But I think I will enjoy Horizon more than BoTW...Horizon just seems way fresher...
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