One analyst believes that Sony is readying the PlayStation 5 for release in 2018 – but we respectfully disagree. Macquarie Capital Securities forecaster Damian Thong told The Wall Street Journal that Sony's next-gen system could drop as early as the second half of next year, with his accurate PS4 Pro and PS4 Slim predictions lending to his credibility.
But we reckon it's pretty clear the Japanese giant is working on a three year cycle right now, with last year's hardware line refresh likely to carry things until at least 2019. It's possible that the company may namedrop a new console next year, but even that seems unlikely from where we're sitting – it's only going to impede sales of its current crop of consoles.
Looking at the company's software slate, we reckon it's got enough to keep the PS4 well serviced for a good couple of years yet – and that's just taking into account the things we know about. Internally, it may be starting to look to a new generation – Horizon: Zero Dawn 2 probably will be on brand new hardware, for example – but don't expect it to make that information public for a good while yet.
[source wsj.com]
Comments 65
Absolutely no chance of a ps5 next year. Not while ps4 is so successful. I expect Sony are developing their ideas for it, but it is far too soon. Continue to build your player Base and only release it when ready
It better not.
They'll definitely be working on it, but it's coming November 2019 at the absolute earliest.
@get2sammyb Personally I don't see the PS5 being released until 2020 or 2021.
That gives plenty of people a chance to experience both the PS4 Slim and Pro fully.
Maybe they'll try to steal some of Scorpio's thunder at E3 by dropping the project name. Not like they need to at this point, I doubt MS will do anything at E3 that will raise eyebrows.
@RedMageLanakyn I very, very, very much doubt that.
I'm all up for PS5 as soon as next year. Doubt it'll happen until Q4 19 though.
It's gunna be funny watching it launch without folders, external HDD support etc and waiting 4-5 years for all that to be patched in though lol
@get2sammyb Me too, just playing Devil's advocate. Anything's possible!
@Eternallover21 Hey, aries would fit in with the whole God of War thing haha!
@get2sammyb I've been thinking about and discussing PS5 a lot lately and I always have it come out Nov 2019 the earliest as well. The timing just works. PS4 will still keep getting games though as it becomes the new PS3.
4k disc player, native 4k games, 1TB standard. Thing is to make it powerful enough for a proper res PSVR2.
No way. New tech is always cool, but is the user base really clamoring for it? Haven't heard anyone complain about how terrible Horizon looks.
Whilst 2019 seems likely I really hope Sony stretch this generation. I hope for a 2020 reveal & 2021 release. The PS4 library has the potential to really become special.
Why even report such rubbish?
I can believe it. Release PS5, announce the end of production of PS4, maintain production of PS4Pro as smaller brother.
Or end production of PS4Pro, citing it as an intermediate stage of development
If ever, personally I'd rather have PS5 in 2025 (or whenever compacting the tech of that horsepower into tablet form becomes affordable and practical), in hybrid form and with full digital PS1-PS4 backwards compatibility. Yeah, you know what I mean. Come on, Sony, you've taken notes before - if PlayStation Move happened, then why not this? ;^)
@rjejr 1TB standard? 500GB became a standard at the end of last gen. I expect at least 2TB, if not 4TB.
To be homest i just got the ps4 pro and only good the ps4 two years ago. If they release ps5 as early as 2019 i may abandon console gameing altogether. 3 year cycle is not worth the 350 investment at all. Im used to getting 6-7 years.
I can underatand them providing another upgraded console but ith consoles so similar to pc now they can continue to release games on ps4 ps4 pro and a ps4 pro 2 for many years without alienating fans by releasing a brand new console.
As you know, and can read in my posts from a long time back, that I predicted a Q4 2018 PS5 release. You can argue that the PS4 Pro arrived at the 3yr mark BUT it was highly unlikely to arrive at the 2.5yr mark - Sony really want to take advantage of the Holiday market and its a more traditional launch window too.
Just because the 'Pro' launched in 2016, doesn't mean we won't see a PS5 as early as 2018 either. Its still 'just' a PS4 - albeit more powerful but still just a PS4 and locked to the PS4 generation. Its not a 'true' 4k device - more of an intermediate step. I am not referring to 'purely' resolution either as the PS4 Pro generally just boosts resolution but still keeps HD level textures - these are not scaled up with the resolution boost. Its still limited by RAM etc. Its not unheard of for Sony to release a Slim, Super Slim etc a year before a new gen console and the Pro is still just a PS4.
I know it achieves a fantastic result considering, but its more of a PS4 for the 'early' 4k TV adopters rather than a full 4k games console. Its not about competing with Scorpio and reclaiming their 'most powerful console on the market status' but about delivering the full 4k gaming console for the future. Just because Sony release a new generation, it doesn't mean that the PS4 is 'dead' that it won't get games released and Sony will stop supporting it. Fifa 14 released on the PS2, PS3 and PS4. I can see the PS4 still be supported for a good few years after its release. From Sony's perspective, they will want to offer the full 4k experience going forward and a 2018 release is more for the 2019 market anyway.
Like I said, I know the PS4 Pro does a great job of giving us an UHD experience - I own one and a 4k HDR TV too. Point is though a lot of the games run at 1440p or a checkerboard rendered 1800p. Checkerboard rendered means its only drawing 50% of the pixels each frame so in the case of 1800p, that's 2x900p and pulling the other 2x900p from the previous frame. This still needs upscaling to 4k. The equivalent on a PS4 would be a 2x450p to form a 900p image and then upscale to 1080p. Yes a game like Horizon manages to do a 2x1080p render and so doesn't need to be upscaled to 4k but its still only rendering 50% of the pixels each frame - effectively just double that of the PS4 but its not using 4k assets. Of course it looks incredible - especially compared to HD and the HDR adds even more to it too.
The fact is though that the Pro isn't a '4k' console, its a boosted PS4 to offer a UHD experience - it doesn't have the full 4k media suite either - something the competition has - 4k HDR bluray with Dolby Atmos/DTS-X, Game VRR, RAM to offer 4k Textures etc. It was built to keep people from jumping to PC's until Sony are in a position to offer a 4k next Gen console and the 3yr mark was too early to bring out a true next gen hardware.
If you listen to Mark Cerny and Phil Spencer, both will say they had planned to bring out an 'upgraded' console at some stage after releasing their next gen consoles 3.5yrs ago. They knew that the hardware was 'insufficient' for the long term future of this generation but probably had little choice based on cost of parts etc. They could have made a much more powerful console to see us through 6-7yrs and the jump to 4k but the cost would have been far too much to sell a console.
I still maintain that Q4 2018 is the most likely date. That's 5yrs into this generation and whilst that may seem 'early' considering the Pro is only 2yrs old, the Pro is nothing more than the equivalent to a Slim in essence and it doesn't 'reset' the generation as its still very much locked to the PS4. It also doesn't 'force' people into upgrading and that the PS4 will no longer get games. Like last gen, the older consoles still got support and releases. It will still probably get the big AAA multi-plat releases - just the PS5 will give the full 4k option with possibly Atmos quality audio etc too.
I'm gunna end up buying more console's than game's at this rate lol.
I doubt it very much unless scorpio blows up and I can't see that having mainstream appeal.
As gamers who love technology, we see that technology and performance can be improved and want the latest thing. But we are not the people that made Ps4 as successful as it is, it is the average family or people who dip in and out of gaming. Those who wait and get 2 years in when prices go down.
Really, right now, all an upgrade is offering is enhanced visuals, of which you need an expensive TV and audio set up to appreciate. 4k etc. That average consumer who Sony really want to target isn't going to have that setup by 2018, maybe late 2019 or 2020 when adoption is better and price of tech will have dropped enough.
The Ps4 Pro is there for tech fans and dedicated gamers to try and meet that demand for a few more years. A PS5 in the next year would alienate the majority of purchasers.
Traditionally a console cycle lasted around 5 years, only with the last generation did we see an extended cycle, and in my opinion, it dragged on a few years more that it should have.
I suspect those who are most upset at the idea of shorter console cycles are newer gamers for who the PS3 or 360 was the first console they bought themselves.
I however, remember forking out for the PS1 and the excitement 4 years later when PS2 was announced. Similarly, I only owned my PS2 for 5 years before PS3 was announced.
PS4 will be 4 years old in November so I think it's a little early to announce that PS5 exists at this point, however, I think it would steal some of Scorpio's thunder come November (around Scorpio's launch) if Sony confirmed PS5 is in development at its PSX show, with a view to releasing in a year or so's time.
Personally, I would be more than happy to give Sony my money for a new Playstation late next year, despite buying a PS4 and a PS4PRO day one. These consoles see so much use from me that I never begrudge paying for them.
I personally won't be very happy if this happens. Please just do the incremental upgrade path. There's still a ton they can do with the current hardware.
@Lovespuds
Pretty much. It's a bummer for people trying to keep up if they are otherwise struggling to make ends meet but £300 every 4-5 years isn't a massive ask for what's such a big hobby..
The last generation went on wayyyyy too long.
I wouldn't be totally against this idea but do agree that it seems a bit unlikely.
Bringing out a console every 2 years doesn't really make sense given how long development times are for games nowadays but who knows.
I only grabbed my PS4 earlier this year, so it would be a bit annoying for me if the PS5 became the centre of attention as early as next year. The PS4 should still have a good few years left in it, especially since its still doing very well.
@crimsontadpoles
I appreciate it will be frustrating for you but you must realise, you chose to turn up late to the party and millions of people have owned a PS4 for three or four years already.
@Lovespuds That's a good point, I think if Sony said for a fact they were launching a PS5 sept 2018, i'm pretty sure I would cancel my plan's of picking up a Scorpio and i'd wait for the PS5. I'd get PSVR instead maybe, win win for Sony.
@BAMozzy By what your saying it will not be until we get the P.S.5 will we be getting true 4k if this is the case the P.S.5 could be with us pretty soon then.
Electronic arts did give us Fifa 14 on the P.S.2 but Ozzy man it was crud they just updated squads.
Have Switch got any more decent titles out yet besides the green scamp.
i would be incredibly disappointed only because i bought a ps4 at launch because of the promise of kh3. Having it on the ps5 would mean that kh3 skipped the ps3 and ps4
Hard to believe.
PS4 will be 5 years old at the end of 2018, so yeah, I could see a PS5 release happening then.
Yes, PS4 is on a roll now, so why slow down?
The tech inside the PS4 is pretty outdated, it was at launch because of the bad economie worldwide we had to wait so darn long.
I really don't see a problem, if only for Sony to keep MS at a disadvantage. It has paid off pretty damn well for the PS4.
PS4 Pro being just a few years ago then, doesn't really matter as it's just a minor upgrade.
Scorpio is a bigger threat, IF MS wise up and let the thing get exclusives so they can actually use the full power of the thing.
Announcing a PS5 at E3 will nip that threat in the bud and keep the Playstation brand hot.
Predicting the PS4 Slim and Pro isn't that impressive. Maybe the Pro but definitely not the Slim, anyone could've guessed that. We aren't seeing a PS5 before 2019.
@Number09 4k is more than just 'resolution'. Games like Titanfall only run at 1440p (I say only but it still nearly double the pixel count of 1080p) but the textures are still HD quality - not the standards of 4k. It still looks 'impressive' compared to 1080p but again we are not getting the full effect.
I fully expected Fifa 14 to be 'poor' on PS2 but the point I was making is that the console still received support - even though the PS4 was launching. Just because a 'new' generation is launched, it doesn't mean the 'old' generation is instantly obsolete. All those fearing their precious PS4 and/or Pro is instantly dead just because Sony are releasing a new generation, its no different from any other 'new' generation launch. Chances are that 90%+ of all games releasing in the first year or so will also release on PS4. Sony 'may' opt to keep a few games for PS5 only - its only normal - No way was Knack unable to run on a PS3 but they had to have some launch game(s). How many people actually upgraded to a PS4 in the first month or 3 - I know a lot did but the majority waited for a year or more - 10m in year 1 but 60m in 3.5yrs says that.
As I said the Pro is a good console and was built as a 'half way' step whilst 4k is still not the most 'popular' TV in peoples homes/It was not made too powerful to deliver the full 4k as that would have pushed costs up more and was still going to be limited to the PS4 gen anyway. Its a good balance considering but its still not really a full 4k experience.
Not sure I'd put money on it being released next year, but I'd expect an announcement of sorts next year at least.
I hope it is not true as I am not interested. After Pro and VR that would be another heavy expense for fans.
@kyleforrester87 Hopefully they release all of those features at Launch with the PS5 this time around.
Alot of users would be frustrated if they had to wait that long again for such simple necessary features.
@rjejr Nah, by PS5 I would hope that 3TB or 4TB would become the standard HDD size. Especially with such a vast selection of titles for the PS4 already.
@Octane I'd love to see a 4TB PS5 being the standard launch size.
@Fight_Teza_Fight @ZurapiiYohane Agreed 100%, that would be good timing. Especially for me since I don't plan on owning a PS4 until Black Friday 2017/2018.
@nhSnork 2025 seems too far off, but then again if it meant we could play all or at least most PS1/PS2/PS3/PS4 titles I would be behind that.
Bonus points for Sony if it supported PSP and Vita titles too.
@teatimed I still have faith that KH3 will be released on PS4, but at this rate it'll be near the end of it's life cycle around 2018-2019 (2020 worse case).
At least this means Square-Enix will probably have an excuse to re-release the entire Kingdom Hearts series on PS5 in one or two complete packages eventually lol .
I doubt an outright PS5, but I suppose as it's now the 'in thing', there could be another iteration of PS4 to take on Scorpio. PS4 Pro Plus, maybe?
Although that would mean things were starting to get a little silly.
No it won't.
cetainly wont be buying any new playstation the console will be from ms due to the great way sony treat its customers and the great support
@get2sammyb man I should be an analyst. You can be wrong 50% of the time and still be a high paid "expert". Wasn't this the guy who was technically right as he predicted a next gen console when Pro was announced?
Why would sony predict an amazing year for the ps4 if they were going to announce its upcoming replacement? Either way in my opinion a few things will need to happen before the ps5 is even announced.
1 - The Pro needs to be minimum 2 years old.
2 - They need to remove the free games for either ps3 or vita with plus. This could literally be a "we are removing from ps3 but..." kind of announcement.
3 - There needs to be a demand. No one is asking for it right now. Ps4 still plays 3rd party games and still plays them well. They need to show a reason to upgrade.
I could add a couple more minor points but I dont want to ramble. Ps4 wont even be announced until playstation experience 2018 at the earliest with its subsequent reveal E3 2019 and release late 2019 again at the EARLIEST.
@gruf69 Really? I get maybe thinking Sony doesnt care for you personally...there are a lot of you's to deal with... But White Knighting Microsoft in the same paragraph is very telling.
@Octane 1TB is all anybody needs as long as they continue to support external HDD, preferably at launch this time. The Switch just launched with 32GB and I think it takes up to 2TB cards. I'd much rather get a 1TB w/ external support then 2TB that costs $50 more. They can save 2TB for the KH3 or FF7 Remaster limited ed bundle, whichever game gets delayed until PS5.
@BAMozzy "Games like Titanfall only run at 1440p (I say only but it still nearly double the pixel count of 1080p)"
I'm just going to leave this here.
@Splints Your point is??
4k is 4x the resolution. However 4k gaming also has 4k assets not HD level assets. Titanfall may have bumped the resolution up a bit but its still using the same assets as the HD version. Whilst some things do look sharper overall, the textures do look a little 'soft' by comparison. If it hasn't got the RAM and bandwidth to handle the higher quality assets, then it has to make do with lower quality...
@ToddlerNaruto I just answered this a few posts above but 1TB is enough for any few games and 3.0 USB is fast enough for external as PS4 shows.
To me it feels like PS4 is just hitting its stride. And its market has grown so significantly that it would be a waste to move on so soon.
@BAMozzy 4k = 4000 (4 times 1080)
1080 = 1080
1440 = 1440
I agree with everything else you said and love reading through your comments. But 1440 is not double 1080. Its not even 1.5 times. Like I said love your comments just your math is off.
@Splints 1440p is just under double the pixel count!!!
1080p = 2.07m pixels
1440p = 3.69m pixels
2160p = 8.29m pixels
if you read my original post, I said 'nearly' double and 3.7 is 'nearly' 2x2
Its certainly more than 1.5 times the resolution so I think my maths is far closer than yours!!!
While highly unlikely, I wouldn't rule out hearing PS5 rumors by mid-2018, especially depending on how Scorpio shakes out. Despite what their PR says, PS4 Pro may have splintered their market while everyone else is setting up brand new hardware this year.
Hmm... since these new consoles are based on PC architecture... ie. Easily upgradeable compare to previous generation. I reckon a new 'update' with incremental faster chips/gfx card could easily be updated every 2 years and still play current games. And if a new ps4 comes out... I simply sell previous one and upgrade! I've easily sold my ps4 vanilla and now seeking my slim to upgrade to pro. The crazy thing is gamers are addicted to better graphics. .. so the console makers supply it. Hey better an upgrade than a ... ahem 2ds downgrade no?!!!
Say the Switch really takes off and it keeps selling like it is now , what are the chances of Sony making a Switch-esqe console ? A good thing for Sony is they have basically free marketing to see if the Switch succeeds beyond the early hype.
@rjejr While that's true, alot of gamers love to "hoard" their games, which makes it easy for them to surpass 1 TB.
As far as Externals go, they take up extra physical space plus those annoying activity lights.
I'd rather swap out the Internal HDD for a bigger size.
@oatmealwarrior92 They already have - the Vita. I could see Sony bringing out a 'Vita 2' if Switch is successful that 'could' run PS4 games - maybe not at exactly the same level of visual quality - but shouldn't need to specifically on a smaller screen.
@ToddlerNaruto Putting in 'bigger' HDD's for retail units increases the overall cost to the customers. If they are targeting a certain figure - like $400 for example, by increasing the size of the HDD, they are reducing the amount they can spend on the parts that matter to make that budget. Its better to give a 1TB and spend the rest of the budget on the CPU/GPU/RAM. Internals are still 'limited' even if you can upgrade them. To keep the small form factor, consoles use a 'laptop' style cradle. As such these are limited to a certain storage capacity. If they went for a 'desktop' size, then you could have much more storage but also increase the size of the unit. Even 2TB though is likely to get filled up over the life of a console - especially if you download all PS+ games.
In my opinion, I think Sony should have built some SSD storage onto the Motherboard - specifically for the OS ONLY - especially if they go down the route of replaceable HDD's. It would remove the element of having to download the latest OS and re-install that.
Personally I prefer the external solution. I know its not as 'tidy' but the benefits outweigh the con. Externals are often cheaper per TB of storage, can be much larger and not limited either. If you fill up 1 external, you can just buy another and these are additional to all internal storage. Until Sony added External support, the most I could have was a 2TB with some of that taken up by System software. On my XB1, I had a 2TB internal + 5TB External and it was a lot simpler to install than fitting a new HDD to my PS4. The 5TB cost as much as my 2TB PS4 internal too and I had to buy an extra flash USB stick to download the OS onto. After upgrading, I am left with a USB stick and a 'spare' internal HDD sat in a draw doing absolutely nothing - a complete waste of money.
I would prefer Sony to put at least a couple of USBs on the back of the PS5 rather than build in upgradeable HDD's (not complaining if they did but its not a priority to me). If they then release USB external HDD's in a complimentary design - for those who find the small extra box of an external distracting - as long as 3rd party externals can still be used, I would be happy.
I would prefer they put their budget into the parts that 'matter' most and then let me upgrade my storage at a cost that suits me without 'waste'. I know I 'could' put my old internal in a caddy and use that as an external but again increasing the cost for minimal gain - it wasn't adequate for storage before so why will it be adequate now?
Please no, I greatly prefer the idea of longer console generations. I don't to constantly swap out my console, and end up not having space for all of them.
Yeah I agree 2019 is a possibility but not 2018...
You will know when PS5 is inbound. They will stop production on stock PS4, and there will be a new PS4 Pro slim. This will become the junior console, to the PS5. If PS5 is coming out, it will be in 2019 probably, that way, keeping with projections Sony could sell anther 40m consoles by then. 18-20m projected for this year, the same for next year too. Stock PS4 will be 5+ years old by then, and there will be a sizeable chunk of the Nation ready to move up with PS5. Expect 10tflops+, 12-16gb ram. The Scorpio undertaker.
@Eternallover21
Aries? Only to be killed by 5ephiroth...
Lol...
@BAMozzy You do raise some good points. To each their own and all that.
If scorpio putting pressure on sony maybe we will see that day
I really don't like this, the good days of GEN is just started
And a second reason makes me feels like ps5 is not coming until 2020 is kojima game! He said game would not be ready on 2019 and not coming for ps5
So it could be a nice goodbye for us with ps4 , like what ND did on las GEN with TLOU
I like see it in 2020
@ToddlerNaruto Of course its great to have the choice of either option - that we it suits both groups...
@pbernoos No reason why it can't release on PS5 in 2019 too - just in 4k with 4k assets and dolby atmos sound instead of 1440p (or 1800p checkerboard) and upscaled to 4k on Pro. Knowing Kojima, it won't be on time and it could end up jumping console to PS5 like the Last Guardian.
Kojima certainly didn't say it wouldn't be on PS5....
Its all well and good saying games look great on PS4 - which they do, but then games looked great on PS3 too - look at the Last of Us. Doesn't mean that a game can't look a lot better in 4k or play better .
Personally I bought a PS4 and a PS4 Pro and have a 4k TV so I know what these consoles can offer. The Pro does a good job of bridging the gap between HD and 4k but I do see it as a half way step and something to fill a need whilst 4k HDR is in its early stages, whilst 4K TV's are in the minority but not adequate for the long term. Just because you may not have a 4k TV, the fact is, in a few months, Sony's biggest competition - PC's and Xbox - will offer 4k gaming with 4k assets etc.
People need to remember the Pro isn't a 'new' console. It isn't anything more than a PS4 - albeit with a bit more power under the hood - its still a PS4 and locked to this gen. When the PS4 is replaced, so will the Pro.
@ToddlerNaruto "I'd rather swap out the Internal HDD for a bigger size."
And there's that.
I hated, and have railed, about the storage limitations on the Wii U Deluxe for years. And that's coming from a guy who owns a 12GB PS3 Slimmer, which became 80GB the day I opened out from my old PS3 HDD when I upgraded that one to 500GB. 32GB was just never enough. The DLC - not the game, the DLC - that has been secretly downloaded from Lego Dimensions is over 6GB. It was just never enough. And I'm assuming the same with Switch.
My 500GB PS4 I got for Christmas was full about a week later, and I buy almost all of my games on disc, but as you know that doens't matter if you want to play them. PS+ is really a problem. A good problem, but a problem. But I still haven't purchased an external HDD yet, I'm managing w/ 500GB. And when I don't, I'll buy external.
But when PS5 launches Sony will want to sell a lot of them, and you do that by making them less expensive, not more. Sony didn't launch the Pro before the original model. I think 1TB is the sweet spot between what people need and the lowest price possible. Sony has already set precedents w/ the numerous PS3 models, about a dozen different HDD sizes, and the Pro w/ PS4. So, what can we expect w/ PS5? Start out at $400 w/ 1TB. A year later release 2TB same price. A year later 2TB in a Pro model for more.
I know there are people who will always want more, but the masses want cheap. Not as cheap as Ntinedo, but cheaper than 3 or 4TB. 1 is a nice round number, better than 750GB.
I hope it will not come out before 2020/2021. In my opinion, the only reason why the Pro was sent out was to match Microsoft, THE PUSH FOR 4K sales, and the fact that they needed a bump in hardware. That or developers needed new hardware. I'm fine with waiting until then, I'm still on the fence to get a Pro, mainly bc my ps4 is starting to act up. Even name dropping, will upset some, and the sales will drop.
@rjejr 2 years after the initial launch and 1 year after the Pro launch, at that point you might as well buy a data bank with a good 3.5 sshd.
@rjejr I'm expecting a 4TB PS5 to cost $400 at launch date.
Since tech prices keep plummeting every year.
@ToddlerNaruto 4TB really seems like overkill for people that only buy 2 or 3 games a year. I mean if they can get it in there at that price sure, but I'd rather they have 2TB and throw in 4 extra GB of RAM or something.
@rjejr I'm sure they can pull off both depending on the cost of what it'll take Sony to make PS5.
I personally Think Sony Should Wait until 2025 to to Release The PS5, Get The most sales out The PS4 pro Then Maby bring out The PS4 pro 2 in 2020, GTA 6 Should come out in 2025 aswell, with The Whole of the US and The Ability To Destroy Building and Trees, Sony also needs to make a Gaming suit for The ps5 and VR So Boxing games can be more realistic and Shooting games can be Amazing, You could feel getting shot without obviously getting hurt.
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