We don’t think anyone really expected the PlayStation 5 to launch this year, despite there being reports to the contrary. Nevertheless, industry analyst Michael Pachter has been chatting to WCCFTech about the probability of a new console this year, and he’s said that there’s a “very low” chance of the PS5 dropping this Christmas.
The outspoken Wedbush Securities suit added that he feels there’s a 25 per cent chance of a new system next year, and a 75 per cent chance of one in 2020. We can probably all agree that the next PlayStation will be a “thing” by November 2020, but reports last week suggested that development kits were already in publishers’ hands.
Whatever happens, you’re witnessing the start of the rumour mill, so hopefully you’re ready for lots more PS5 speculation over the coming months and years.
[source wccftech.com]
Comments 45
Oh geez. That means it’s coming out this year, since this guy is always wrong 😅. Does anyone like this guy?
@ztpayne7 I think he's great. He knows how to push the gaming community's buttons, and does it liberally.
I could see a PS5 releasing in 2020.
This doesn't strike me as a particularly groundbreaking analysis. Most of us would also guess a similar thing. Sony would be stupid to release the PS5 this year considering how the PS4 is still riding high, and there are lots of announced exclusives for it that will release next year at the earliest (Last of Us II, Days Gone, etc.), and because of that, it would also be poor idea to release the PS5 in 2019 as well, because they'd be killing all of the hype for these popular exclusives by announcing and marketing the PS5. So yeah, 2020 at the earliest is fairly certain I'd say.
Whatever, It's all ballpark predictions that lead to nothing but baseless speculation. A fart, in digital form.
2019 announcement
2020 release
It's as simple as that because it's high end titles are coming this year and beginning of next and it would be stupid for Sony to announce now or beginning of next year as everyone will wait for the PS5 version of its high end titles like expect The Last of Us Part 2 to be on it for sure and maybe Got of War as well. I still expect FF7 Remake to appear on PS5 over 4 I really do because of the delays etc I believe SE have a PS5 devkit
I would much prefer 2019 I feel that the current system is holding back VR. This will be my last console. Cloud PC gaming is now moving forward at a good pace and is well priced as an alternative.
Michael Pachter, aka Captain Obvious. Not hating on the guy, I'm certain the job is much more complex than these pronouncements would make it seem, but I wish I could get paid for stating what seems to be obvious.
@Turismo4GT Release in 2018, announcement in 2019, now that's something nobody could predict!
@Octane
Im sure they have dev kits already , they wanna have alot of launch titles
I would be pleasantly surprised if it does launch in 2018 as I would much prefer to play my games at the best visual and most importantly highest possible frame-rates on console - that includes games like Days Gone, Last of Us 2, Ghost of Tsushima etc. As it stands right now, all my PS4 Pro is used for is exclusives.
There is no way the PS4 was built to last 7years as the primary console - especially not with such a weak CPU. I know its better than the XB1 but during the PS3's generation, we didn't have such advancements as 4k, VR, HDR, Dolby Atmos, Game VRR etc of which only HDR is offered. The X offers all of these but a PS5 could offer a much better CPU and therefore more chance of 60fps in games that are currently limited to 30fps on consoles.
Sony has a history of having two generations of console - the PS1 lasted right up until the PS3 and the PS2 lasted right up until the PS4 launched - at least as far as manufacturing was concerned so it wouldn't be unreasonable for Sony to make a PS5 and still keep the PS4 in production too. It makes sense to have a proper 4k console sooner rather than later in my opinion...
Now, the rumors will come along even faster. Honestly, with the PS4 still cracking sales and the software still flowing for it, I don't get why anyone would want to fork money over for another system so soon. Anyways, the development kits going out now, doesn't necessarily mean much, just means that companies will begin work on a game or two to have them actually ready for it's launch...some big games can take 1-2 years at the most (or about 10 like Kingdom Hearts 3 seems to be...jokingly). In honesty though, even if the PS5 came out before 2020, the PS4 will still be around (retail games coming out for it) beyond that...seems to be the case since the PS2 era. Let's just hope that when Sony does announce the console, they don't mess it up to leave them behind in the console war...no high price console, no weird gimmicks like nintendo does.......speaking of which, imagine if Sony and Microsoft did bring out a new console so soon...the Switch would look horrible then.
@verynaughtyboy Same here. I have a huge backlog of games from the last and current generations of all consoles (Sony, Nintendo, Microsoft) and I don't have any more room on my entertainment center for another console. If the PS5 isn't fully backwards compatible with PS4 games (bonus if it has boost mode like PS4 Pro), then I'll have to skip it.
@Octane yoooo, mind blown. Maybe you should be doing that job and making the big cash
@get2sammyb 2021 playa. word up son
And that is perfectly fine with me though I imagine people who have had a PS4 since launch are ready to move on. I do hope PS4 is forwards compatible with the games on PS5 like the Xbox Two is supposed to be, that would be the smart move for those that don't want to upgrade and I mean besides frame rates amd resolution how much better can graphic fidelity get anyway. We are never going to see a leap like PS1 to PS2 to PS3 ever again so I don't think upgrading instantly is all that important.
All the more happier I never gave in to PS4 Pro. 2020 would be long enough to welcome PS5.
I still wouldn't be surprised if we get new PS hardware this year. The window between announcement and release was small with the Pro, no reason it won't be as small with whatever comes next. Equally I expect it to play all PS4 games. It may have its own catalogue, but all or some of its games may also be playable on the standard PS4 and PS4 Pro.
The point is, I don't see Sony willingly "rebooting" the console wars, and I think this is the best way for it to retain its lead. It worked for them with the Pro and MS are doing it with the X.
Honestly, my money is on hardware iterations from here on until everything goes digital.
I honestly don't think they will announce anything until microsoft does. They are crushing in sales and don't need to push the next generation. Im 100% sure they are ready but will bide their time and streamline the performance until release.
Thats not to say they couldnt realease next year. Im sure they have a good idea what it looks like and what its specs are. But like I said you dont play your hand first when you are winning.
Pachter is a prat, this is the guy that said the market wound not tolerate another console generation after ps3/360. 75+ million ps4 consoles later and he has some serious egg on his face.
Really hope the ps5 is a couple of years away minimum.
Why is he even relevant to the gaming industry? I blame the gaming media for always publishing what ever crap comes out of his mouth
@BAMozzy 2018 is still too soon, most aren't ready for it, especially with Sony's biggest games still to come. There's no way games like The Last of Us, Ghost of Tshusimia and Days Gone come out after PS5.
@adf86 Sony's 'Biggest' games would look and run better on a PS5 -most likely 60fps and full 4k as opposed to being scaled down to 1440p (or CB4k) and 30fps as well as any other compromises to visual settings - like draw distances, shadow quality etc.
If Naughty Dog follow their current pattern (albeit with just 2 games), then Last of Us 2 will only be 1440/30 on Pro. There is also NO reason that these games can't be released on both PS4 and PS5 simultaneously. It will be better from my perspective as the most likely outcome is that they will be released on PS5 as a 'remaster' although I bet they are built to 4k/60 anyway and so just released with far less 'compromise' on visual quality/performance.
Maybe 2018 is 'too soon' but that doesn't mean that there isn't a 'need'. Games on PS4 are having to make more compromises - whether that's inconsistent resolutions (dynamic scaling) or capping frame rates at 30fps. Personally I would prefer to play these games at the highest possible standards - if that means I have to make do with 'Pro' performance then so be it but the tech is not exactly the most capable.
I do think that a few games will be crossgeneration to like the Last of Us 2.
@BAMozzy I think a lot of people would disagree with you my PS4 is still awsome. 😁
There are tons of great looking games on the PS4 and the best ones run solid to. And im always looking for the shadows when im having fun playing a game. 😁😆🤣
But thats me. 😋😉
@BAMozzy That's you though, you want a PS5 now just so could play games at a higher resolutions and framerates at the expense of everything else. You say there's no need for Sony not release their games simultaneously, except it takes away any need to buy a PS5 since people can get those games cheaper on PS4 (new console tax and all that) and the general consumer value price above power and framerates. That's assuming PS5 games run at 4K 60FPS anyway because when given the choice most AAA games prefer pushing graphics above all others cos it's much easier to sell a game on how it looks then on how smooth it runs compromises are going to happen regardless I'm afraid.
Now don't get me wrong I understand why you would want PS5 now but in the long term it's better for everyone if Sony hold off till late 2019 at the earliest.
I don't see me buying anymore consoles so when it releases really is not relevant to me anymore. Ive always bought gaming consoles as soon as released but it'll take a lot to make me step up again especially with my whole game collection this gen on digital and a vast backlog still to be played. I could see me maybe picking up a ps5 if its totally backward compatable with ps4's full library and it's a vast leap forward in tech. Im happy with the level of graphics etc as they are I dont need 4k or higher res and constant 60 frames per sec crap. It'll be 2022 to 2025 b4 i jump at least.
@Flaming_Kaiser @adf86 All that says to me is that you are worried that you may have to spend money on a new console and would rather 'make do' with increasing compromises to the games just to get them running on hardware that is increasingly dated.
The fact is that the Pro falls well short of the '4k console' its marketed as - much more so than the XB1 falls short of being a 'full HD' console and the PS4 too is also seeing increasing number of games with dynamic resolution as well as an overall 'drop' in visual settings too just to run at 'close' to 30fps more consistently.
Of course devs are continuing to make great games - that's their job. They can't suddenly stop or make 'poor' games until the hardware releases that can deliver the games much closer to the devs vision. Uncharted 4 was planned to be 60fps but ND had to compromise that to 30fps for its Campaign and drop the MP down to 900p - it was never going to stop them from making the game - waiting until a new gen comes out so they could release it at 60fps and without needing to sacrifice resolution, draw distances, shadow quality etc.
3rd Party games show how much a game is compromised because you can compare the game running on a PC with High/max settings. They too won't wait until a PS5 comes out but will release their games on a PS4 with everything scaled down to fit the limitations of the old hardware. That doesn't make the old hardware capable but that its still possible to sacrifice enough elements of the game to make it still work at a 'reasonable' level.
As I said, I would prefer a PS5 in 2018 as I would prefer to play my games at a higher standard than the Pro can offer. If it doesn't arrive until 2019, then I will still be playing those few exclusives I want but at a compromised performance level. If that's the 'best' that is currently available for those games, then so be it but that doesn't make those games being at the best they could or were probably built to be.
Infamous too was planned to be 60fps but that too had to capped to 30fps. Sucker Punch went on record to say that the CPU isn't great in the PS4 and a main cause of bottlenecking - that was in 2014 at the GDC. A number of other Devs have complained about the CPU in the current gen consoles too...
Hey Pachter, now you're talking about PS5, but I thought that consoles are dead and PS4 is the last console made by Sony. What gives?
Well, it's more or less confirmed, then. I'll stick to my PS1 ;P https://youtu.be/by0y-Jo8yNA
Dev kits need to go out now so we will have games to play in a few years. Nov 2018 = NO or crap games at launch. 7 months is way to short to to make a game.
I don't really care about native 4K, higher frame rate and more assets in game is what I want. Horizons Zero Dawn was top notch in 4K/HDR on my PSPro!
Sony wants to co launch with Microsoft again. If they can do more powerful console at less cost again. That along with PlayStations First party team will lead the Software line-up. That will keep them as the place to play and #1. November 2019 really equals a 2020 release November 2020 equals 2021. I want to see PS4 pass 100K sold mark!!!
The PS5 word is early 2019 reveal, fall 2019 release, just like PS4 did with their 2013 reveal/release.
Development kits may well be in developers' hands early to promote first year third party support (say that ten times fast). And why not? On the other hand, the little we actually know about PS5 promises no surprises - it should ease up the development but since the latter still takes years on its own nowadays (the street billboard resolution alone won't optimize itself overnight), the assumably retained architecture leaves all the less reason not to allow head starts. Confidentiality? Only time will tell if there's much to leak about the real PS5 besides the grandeur of specs. Some current mockups do "suggest" an even more impressively Nintendo-esque controller, but... look at all the mockups for Nintendo NX itself. XD
To be fair, though, between the controller, the streaming and the developer-friendly hardware PS4 itself still feels like Sony's most VIDEO GAME console rather than just an entry in the race of specs and filesizes. I'd say only Vita has truly taken a shot at that before, which makes its fate all the more tragic. So I don't expect much but don't wanna be a sour grape about it either. Again, the next few years will tell.
PS4 is all set for these years anyway - you could cease first party support now and it would still coast along for some time thanks to its amassed library. The charts still make me wonder how many people in the west might be outright buying it as a GTA V machine first and a neat bonus of such a lot besides. XD
And to reiterate, I have zero belief in the possibility of a hybrid PS5 even though such a crazy scenario would cement me as an early adopter. GPD Win 2, while not a console per se, still shows the cost (literal and figurative) of getting even full-scale OG PS4 into a tablet size, let alone something Sony will absolutely want to one-up XBOX with (this abbreviation still makes me chuckle). Sony has officially abandoned pure portable gaming market for now (mobile satellites like That's You! don't count) and Switch's success is too recent to base any visibly upcoming hardware on. Between wall carpet resolutions and VR, the PlayStation brand is focused on living room experiences and they've said as much.
If only we gamers didn't get to afford less and less time in our living rooms as we grow older.[/firstworldmelancholy]
@Octane "You like to steal and leak info, internet? Hah! Then we'll leak our own console BEFORE you can leak too much info about it!"
All sounds pretty obvious to me. God these guys seem to have an easy job lol.
Patcher strikes again! 😱
@BAMozzy I'm with you, I'd much rather have a PS5 this year with a much needed CPU upgrade and with backwards compatibility options similar to those on X, so that PS4 games run better on it without you having to mess about with system check boxes. What's wrong with wanting games to look and play better?
At the moment my PRO is unused outside of exclusives and with nothing on my radar until Spiderman and Yakuza 6 I don't see it getting much use anytime soon, maybe a bit of Crash and Rocket League.
No duh, its not going to be released in 2018.
They're not even going to announce it it in 2018. Sony doesn't want to interrupt its already strong PS4 sales, not to mention making the PS4 Pro even more pointless (the XB1X is also pointless in this generation). Mind you I have a Pro and VR, and while it does have enhancement in some games, and a few VR titles.. I admit that it is an irrelevant product which competes with it's own little brother. The mid-generational consoles really didn't do much more than fill a small gap while waiting for the next big things.. which will probably be announced late in 2019 and aim for a 2020 holiday season.
I think I love rumours more than games these days!
I personally think at least the initial plan say pre-2017 was 2019. And could still be 2019 but could be 2020. The final internal spec is probably locked down so hardware will probably be ready for next year but I can see Sony waiting until 2020 to refine the hardware while getting the cost down and to give their studios more time to get games ready.
As gamer I want a PS5 as late as it can be. I love amazing graphics and all, yes, even if I play since ms-dos days, atari etc. Having a PS5 "soon" means it's weak hardware-wise. To get a real generational leap from PS4, a number of hardware upgrades need to be squeezed into a small form factor box and having a rational retail price.
It's relatively easy to dream about what a PS5 should have: 4x GPU of PS4 Pro (thats about 16GFLOPS), fast 16 core CPU, 20/24 GB RAM... But it's possible to build a console with hardware like that? Possible will be, but when? Not this year for sure. Not even next year...
So I'm happy with PS4 as is (pro/standard), games are good, and when PS5 hits the road I want to be f*cking blown away by it, so yeah, I'm hoping to wait until late 2020 for PS5.
I do not see ps5 in 2018,more likely late 2019 or early 2020,also I just hope that I can play ps4 games on ps5,or even ps3,ps2...
Welll looks like it's definitely this year as this guy couldn't predict his own birthday, has to be the most unless person at there jobz is not tye clown who said the PS4 was doomed to fail?
Pachter says PS5 won't be releasing in 2018?
2018 release confirmed.
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