Topic: American Sports

@Th3solution I definitely think Shai is the MVP this season! It was literally quite insane what OKC achieved in the second half because of him.

Stats... don't tell the story as such. But in the first half Boston showed why they are good. OKC expected the three and Boston drove to the paint, over and over, and made OKC look bad, whilst still taking (and bricking) the wide open threes that they should take (it happens) And in the second half OKC showed why they are good, and I think it shook Boston. It was a mentality loss, for sure. I think part of it was in the second when they drove to the paint they'd get slapped about and in the first half it was called a foul, and in the second it wasn't. And it just absolutely messed up the game plan. And at that point they couldn't save it due to being so cold from three already.

I did have a theory, and it was a feeling at half time, that maybe OKC defended less well on the first half on purpose (it was glaringly bad first half, and I know they don't play like that) knowing that when they turn it on in the second it will feel like it's come from nowhere and blindsid Boston. Unfortunately it's exactly what happened 😂

I genuinely think that is the best way to beat Boston, which is why it does maybe seem like their coach gameplanned that too, as mad as it seems. If Boston think a game is a little easier it lures then into a false sense of (ball) security.

Overall it was a fun game. And OKC have shown that there is scope to absolutely smack people on defence and it be legal play. So it's something for everyone to aim for, Boston included. And I mean that in a good way, as I love aggressive defence if there is ref consistency that allows for it.

Boston defended pretty well too, but OKC were also pretty hot from three in the second and the plan to leave some shooters open and focus on Shai and Williams totally broke down the later it got. Especially with Boston being so cold from three themselves. Giving up a planned open three and it hitting every time but not being able to get it back yourself is a mentality killer.

@Ravix Yeah, sometimes the stats don’t tell the story like watching a game. And sometimes the final score doesn’t indicate how close a game really was, or wasn’t.

Nevertheless, I don’t know if there would have been an actual gameplan for the change in approach or simply just a halftime adjustment. There is a chess match to these things, of course, and sometimes I do think that a coach may rely on a surprise tactic at the end of a game, especially if he feels confident that his team is younger and has more in the tank, or has a closer who can turn things up a notch in the fourth, or has a deeper bench, etc. I do think that OKC likes to wear the opponent down with tenacious D and rely on just outlasting other teams with their depth and youth. They like to get out and run a lot too for fast break points, which of course is fed by their high steal rate. Still, I didn’t watch the game but it sounds like they were the beneficiary of Dort hitting shots in the 4th, going 3/3 from behind the arc in that final quarter to ice the game. I think if you’re Boston then you just have to live with that. If you lock in on SGA and Williams and Dort is taking those shots then that’s a gamble that should pay off most of the time. He’s a great physical defender, but he’s not your offensive closer, despite being a very respectable 40% from 3 this season. But I’d rather he be taking those shots than Shai or Williams (Jalen with an “e” Williams, that is. 😅 So crazy that the team has 3 Williams’s and two of the three are named “Jalen” and “Jaylin”. I don’t even know a single Jalen in my life, so it’s not even a common name really). So in the usual situation where Dort hits only 1 of those attempts and White or Brown (also funny how the team has two players with colors for last names 😅) or Porzingis hits their average from 3 then it’s a completely different outcome. Looks like they play each other in March again, so we’ll have a really good idea where each team is by then, as far as playoff positioning and momentum at the end of the year.

@Th3solution I was disappointed by Boston in the second half, but it was for sure OKC's win. In the first half they were just not defending in a way that resembled what they are known for, and Boston had every answer for it, despite still missing most threes. At one point Jrue Holiday was easily getting layups in 5 yards of space in the paint?! Jaylen Brown was finding it easy to drive and score. But second half, it was just different.

I honestly believe that, if this was the Finals, and game two was tomorrow Boston would get a big win. But... it's not, and they must learn from this.

Last night, if they had not given away lazy turnovers in the second half that spurred OKC into beast mode, and led to what amounted to about two 15 point quarters 💀 it would have been a close win. If they'd hit anything like the percentage of expected threes it would have been a blowout win last night.

What I will say again though is... Shai is the MVP, wrap that one up now. And OKC some of their stats are mirroring Boston from last year, so I'd not be surprised if it is their year already. Plus minus and/or net rating is through the roof like it was for Boston last year. And in the playoffs refs are going to let them defend how they defend for the whole game.

I'd bet they hold at least one team under 75 one night if they get a good match up in the playoffs. And multiple games with teams scoring under 90

A bunch of NFL takes bouncing around in my brain as we close out the regular season:

Sam Darnold and Bryce Young are two sides of the same coin, and that Lions game put that into focus.

All season even in Darnold's best games he was generally a coin flip away on most throws for those TDs to be INTs instead. But the Vikings are winning and its a nice story so people are happy to gloss over how inconsistent and unreliable Darnold actually is, and if the Vikings flame out in the playoffs and lose in the Wild Card round, I see the narrative on Darnold shifting immediately, cause all of the problems are there, people just don't want to talk about them right now and be the downer on the parade.

Bryce Young is the same. People are talking about Young's redemption arc, how the Panthers need to give him another season. Are we forgetting already that when the games actually mattered, Young looked like he wouldn't even get a starting job in the XFL? But this just feels like the interim HC theory being put into practice at the QB position for me.

Whenever an Interim HC gets put in charge proper, its generally an absolute disaster. But thats because the role of an Interim HC when they brought in in the dying hours of a lost season, is very different to the role they get when they become the HC proper for a full season where things count. You have expectations now, you need to do more than just keep the vibes up.

This to me is absolutely how Young feels. He is playing better, he is playing free, but the Panthers still aren't winning games. It is great to talk about how well Young is playing right now when the season is already lost. But lets see if this Young redemption arc remains being talked about when the Panthers are 1 - 3 after the first month of the regular season next year.

I'm so glad Burrow didn't make it into the playoffs. I'm so bored of the Burrow overhype. The true social media QB. There is no difference to me between the current Bengals, and the Chargers of the last few seasons. But Burrow is apparently failed by his team, yet Herbert is the one failing his team somehow for not putting it on his back???

I didnt need to see people making excuses for Burrow in the playoffs as well. Especially as they would have probably faced the Bills, been blown out and still Burrow would be talked about like he is the best QB in the league (and don't misunderstand me, he is very very good, but he is absurdly overhyped, especially given the weapons he has too).

I thought Mayo would get fired, but was kind of surprised he was the first to go. I guess this means Patriots go all in on Vrabel then. I felt like the Titans were very well coached under Vrabel. But there has to be a reason no one picked up Vrabel last season, and for as much as the Browns talked about loving having Vrabel in their building, that team still absolutely stunk anyway so how much impact did he really have there? And outside of basically QB, the Patriots are just a total mess. I do wonder what Vrabel can realistically achieve with them, especially if Kraft only gives him a year like Mayo.

@Pizzamorg Vrabel is no mere mortal. He also doesn't need good players to coach teams up. The season when the titans had everyone injured all the time and he broke the record for most players used in a season was probably the most entertaining season overall (I think it might be the season when they really should have beaten the Bengals in the playoffs too)

I think maybe the Pats just wanted a buffer between Bill and Mike, as usually when a coach that embodies a team leaves, the next coach struggles to get anything like the same response. Now Vrabel can come in and smack about those that need to be smacked about and inspire the underdog mentality with those prepared to bleed for the team.

Although, it may be too much still. Look at Manchester United in England since Fergie left. This is also a potential outcome for the Pats if they can't get back on track quickly. It could be decades until they find the right coach. I'd say Vrabel at least has a better shot than most of a quick turn around.

Yeah I remember that year where I think the Titans made the playoffs, and Vrabel was practically pulling bodies off the street to flesh out his Titans roster and somehow making it look like a viable team on the field. But I feel like it is one thing to do that to just get you to the end of the season, but that isn't a transferrable skill set necessarily when trying to build up the pillars of a team that are meant to stand long into the future.

I mean the Patriots talked a lot about how Mayo was always their successor. They can lie absolutely but it makes zero sense to me. If Vrabel was always their answer, why didn't they just hire him straight away? Especially as they took a rookie QB. Now Maye is going to have to go through a full staff change probably in his second season. Seems unnecessarily disruptive to his development.

@Pizzamorg that maybe so. But all i'll say is that both Bill and Mike left their teams, and both of those teams were fighting it out for the number one pick this year 👀💀

@Ravix I do think Shai is the MVP. The guy is probably the most well-rounded player in the league. He has great quickness and finish, an absolute assassin from mid range, can hit the 3 with regularity, good defender, great Bball IQ, and by all accounts a great teammate and locker room guy. I really like his chill yet confident personality.

I still like Jokic and Giannis to be in the running too, as well as Tatum. Luka may not make it into the conversation this year due to lack of sufficient games played.

And I forgot to address my thoughts on Butler — I really wonder what team will try to get him. I think the rumor mill has Memphis, Houston, and Denver as all possible landing spots. Golden State would also make sense but I think I saw that they aren’t interested. Honestly, I wouldn’t really want him. Despite him being a great player, he is at the tail end of his career and just too expensive, plus all the headache of the way he’s acting apparently.

What do you think of the Cavaliers? I haven’t watched any of their games. Are they really that good? They’re on pace to win 72 games, which would be close to an NBA record. The ‘15-16 Warriors hold the record at 73 wins, followed by the ‘95-96 Jordan led Bulls with 72. It’s honestly rare company to win 88% of your games. I just don’t think of them as that good, but maybe I’m missing something? We’re halfway through the season so it’s more than a fluke. Are they going to come down to earth?

Yeah I believe the Titans have the number one pick now. Given this is allegedly a weak draft, and the Titans seemingly need bodies rather than necessarily just a couple of key pieces, is it trading Levis and the number 1 pick for a big package of picks the plan then? Do you think Callahan gets to oversee this or is he gone?

@Pizzamorg I honestly don't know, as I just struggled to get into the NFL as a whole this season, and I don't know the feeling around the league or at the Titans. I have read one opinion that seems to think the go to strategy should be to trade down, get bodies, bolster the O line, and if the next season still goes badly with either a new free agent starting QB, or, failing that an even better backup that can swap in for Levis, then the 2026 draft class is the one to go for the next QB and focus a full rebuild around that.

Teams will be looking for a QB this draft, so trading the pick could be the main story, rather than gamble on another QB or waste the pick value.

@Th3solution I don't know, to be honest. Boston beat them and ended one streak, but it seems the rest of the league struggle to deal with them. I don't think teams defend though, like 90% of teams for 90% of the season, so it will be interesting to see in the playoffs. I simply haven't seen any more of them to judge it though. But every time I've flicked on another teams game it's like the all-star game but with less makes, or teams just straight line driving for layups with no resistance. The quality level of teams in regular season games seems really sketchy (unless they are playing a Boston and are therefore up for the game regardless😅) so Cleveland are probably feasting due to the fact no one really expected them to be this good and dont have a Cleveland "plan". But giving any team this much confidence can lead to success, so it could easily transfer.

@Ravix At least for now, I guess my question is answered after Cleveland was able to win the matchup of the league’s two top teams (at least the two best records). The fact that they beat OKC yesterday is definitely a wake-up call to the league that they are legit. I didn’t watch the game but reading about it, the Thunder gave them everything they could handle though and it was a slug-fest to the end. Mitchell didn’t even have a very good game, but the Cavs seem to really be a complete team that doesn’t really depend on just one or two players. I think Mitchell only had 11 points in the game, and Cle was still able to come out with a win. Perhaps the league is coming around on team basketball and the era of one or two superstars carrying a team to a championship are coming to an end. The Celtics were the perfect example of that approach last year. But if you look back at prior years, there’s always been a clear MVP and a main alpha on a championship team — Jokic, Giannis, Curry, Lebron, Wade, Nowitzki, etc. going all the way back to Jordan, Bird, etc. The only other championship teams that I can think of off the top of my head that didn’t have a clear-cut #1 best player would be the Miami team when both LeBron and D. Wade were together, and the old showtime Lakers who had both Magic Johnson and Kareem.

So the Cavs seem to be in the drivers seat for most dominant team, for the time being. But again, I still believe in OKC to ramp up another notch when Holmgren comes back.

@Th3solution damn. I wish I'd watched that game. Totally forgot about it. It was advertised during the Celtics game vs OKC, but I guess it didn't make a note of when it was.

I hope it is the start of team basketball being "in vogue" as that is the kind of basketball, and sport, I like. There is still a clear space for a star player. But they don't have to be the be all end all of success. Everyone has to defend, so keep everyone involved and engaged that way, and reward them in attacking sotuations of they are firing, and you are more likely to be successful overall. It's the reason the Heat are usually a pain in the playoffs, great coaching and an ethic they follow. Which again, is why I think Jimmy Butler is a nutcase. He isn't the ethic, Miami and the coach is the ethic. He simply fits in to it. Sure he is good at it, but if he lands on a team of Tre Young types, it won't make a difference to how those Tre Young types play. It will just be more heavy lifting, but without the team having your back in the same way you have theirs.

Oh, yes. Also... Before 'The Many Adventures of Ja Morant' Memphis was my "west" team that I'd happily watch. And then all that stuff happened and I didn't bother with them. But then they got Marcus Smart so I thought, maybe now it's time. But then Ja was Ja once more, and/or he was injured. I might start to check them out more after the all star game to see what they are like now. I assume Ja has got his sh** together a little bit more now? As he is only missing games through injury these days, it seems? But a team with an ethic like they seemed to have, garnished with a star who can do insane things on the court, to me, is a prime example of both marketable and entertaining and potentially successful basketball.

OKC are far ahead in that regards currently though, and like you say, Cleveland are now making big moves that are gaining them league wide traction and respect. NY should be of a similar mould, too, as they basically copied Boston's approach to building a team and using trades to take it to the next level.

Playoffs should be quite good, if things keep moving in this direction, to be fair. Having written it down, it kind of excites me that there will be some great matchups

@Ravix Indeed. Things are shaping up to be really fun in the second half of the season. Every year there’s a few teams that really click at the end of the season and start to make a run (Mavericks did it last year, Lakers often do this too and just flip a switch in the final stretch) so there will be a lot of shifting in the standings.

Memphis is a perplexing case. Ja is an all-world talent, but just doesn’t seem to quite be the same since his suspension last year. At least in the few games I watched him. He’s still great though, but maybe lost a little bit of his mojo…? We’ll see. The Memphis team as a whole is hard to predict. I really like Bane and they have other good players, but are wildly inconsistent as a team so far. They beat a depleted Mavericks team, but lost recently to Golden State and Sacramento. The got blown out by the Thunder last week (no shame in that) but have put up over 140 points 4 times in the last month — dropping a whopping 155 on Toronto on Boxing Day. I think a lot of the inconsistency is due to injuries, but I’m still not confident they can go far unless they learn to adjust accordingly

@Th3solution

Who out of the current non contenders do you think has the best chance at surprising someone if they get a playoffs match up?

For me, Detroit have actually proven something to me this year. Even though I've only seen them lose to the Celtics (3 times?)
They just seemed to have something more than some other teams that stood out. And I've just had a look at the standings and they have since won 5 in a row, so I'm not that surprised at that. And it seems they are beating teams from the west a fair bit, too.

If you're a betting fellow, I wonder if you could get odds on 1. Them reaching playoffs and 2. Winning one round.

I haven’t paid much attention to the Pistons, but they do seem to have something. They have had some success against the middling West teams — Portland, Minnesota, Lakers, Sacramento. They play Warriors tonight so that will be a test (although Warriors are so inconsistent this year too). They’ve also had victories against the Knick’s, Pacers, and Magic, so they could be a Cinderella this year. I don’t know them well enough to give them odds and I’m not good a betting odds anyway, but I’d say chances of making the playoffs are really good currently only half a game back from the #6 spot where they wouldn’t have to be in the dreaded play-in 7-10 slots. I don’t know, maybe 50% chance make it to #6 seed, and 75% to at least make the play-in. As far as winning a full 7 game playoff series, I think that’s a very low chance. Unless they make it to the 6 seed, they will have to face Boston or Cleveland in the first round. No way they beat either of those over 7 games, in my limited opinion. Maybe 5% chance at best. If they do end up at #5 or #6, then they will face probably NY, Orlando, or Milwaukee. I would give them a 30% chance against that group.

As far as who has the best chance of winning a playoff round as a lower seed, in the East besides Detroit, I think Pacers could put together a run and surprise a team in the opening round. In the standings right now, they would be facing NY. Also, if the standing stay the same the Bucks would technically be the underdog to Orlando in the 4-5 seed marchup and the Bucks can (and would, imo) absolutely win that series. But I think the Bucks rise and probably end the season at the #3 or #4 my the end.

The West is more volatile and a lot of teams could be surprises. Except for OKC, I would say every single team in the top10 is capable of winning or losing an opening round match up against every other team (besides OKC). I don’t see OKC losing to any of these teams in a 7 game series. But could the Spurs (current #10) beat the Rockets (currently #2)? Absolutely. Could the T-Wolves (#8) beat the Grizz (#3)? For sure. Heck, I would probably throw the Suns (currently #12 and one game behind to get into the #10 play-in spot) as a team who could get going and surprise someone. They definitely could beat Houston or Memphis or Denver or Dallas, etc. in a 7 game series.

So for an official answer:
for East - among current ranked teams, Indiana, and among unranked teams, Philadelphia.
For West - among ranked teams, …man, probably T-wolves, and among unranked, Phoenix.

@Ravix oops… realized I forgot to tag you on the above answer to your post. 😆

@Th3solution I can't really argue with all that. Although I still don't class the bigger teams like Phili as an underdog, even if they are bad so far, so if they get in, they should be expected to win games and compete, for sure. I'm also not sure whether to think that way about the Pacers, last season can't have just been a one off, surely. So again, if expect them to compete, regardless.

San Antonio for sure can be considered as the type of team that aren't expected to do anything, but are fully capable of doing something if they get a chance to. But I'd think inexperience may be the end of them, for now anyway.

Cleveland are playing Toronto tonight, so if I think of it I might check it out for a short while. I'd fully expect Cleveland to be getting their biggest win on the year, as Toronto really are bad at guarding and I can see them wanting to give up and try to get Cooper Flagg (if they own their pick?) I'm not 100% on the NBA draft situation, and know it's a lottery regardless. But there's a few teams that seem to be tanking already for a chance at him.

@Ravix Yeah, I’m not a fan of the NBA draft lottery system. The idea is that it should discourage teams from tanking because there’s no guarantee that the team with the worst record gets the first pick. But what can happen is a franchise gets lucky and/or another gets unlucky.

San Antonio has won the lottery three times in the last 35 years whereas many teams that are constant bottom dwellers have never won the lottery and got the first pick. Spurs have won 5 NBA championships in that timeframe! David Robinson was a 1st overall pick from ‘87 had them almost to championship level and then got hurt and missed the 1997 year and so they finished that season toward the bottom and they won the lottery again in ‘97 and picked Tim Duncan 1st overall. Then have finally fallen down in recent years and won the lottery again to get yet another generational talent, Wembanyama in ‘23, and are probably going to get back to the championships with him.

Still, the number 1 picks don’t always work out anyway. Nevertheless, some years are better than others.

As a Chargers fan, you had to leave the door open for them to Charger and lose to a team everyone predicted they'd beat handily. But even I couldn't have predicted the depth of this Chargering. It hasn't been all Herbert's fault, Johnston again with key drops, some baffling play design by Greg Roman (who I'd be amazed survives the off season with this performance) but there is no denying, Herbert has been pretty awful in this game.

As a Chargers fan, this off season is gonna be miserable. At least by the talking head types Herbert has often been criticised when really he has played pretty much lights out since he arrived in the league, but the Chargers haven't achieved anything in that time because of a thin offensive roster, atrocious coaching / management and oftentimes terrible defence. Why Herbert gets blamed for that when other QBs get a free pass, I'll never understand. Herbert is like the sole reason the Chargers haven't been the worst team in the NFL the last few seasons.

Now him playing absolutely horribly in this playoff game will vindicate every Herbert hate take ever written, all achievements he has made will now be erased by all talking heads who hate Herbert for some reason. For the next 12 months, any talk about Herbert will be about this one game as they ignore every other game. Just infuriating.

Like come on Chargers, it was one thing to Charger a game seen as a slam dunk. But for Herbert to go out and lay an egg like this, just pure misery for us fans ahead.

@Th3solution I think Cooper Flagg will be alright as number one.

If Phili can't get up for the second half of the season OKC get a lottery pick, right? 🙈 can you imagine 😂