PS5 Could Launch as Early as 2019, Reckons Analyst

Noooo! My poor moneys!

7 years for this gen sounds about right

Well Nintendo have yet to actually join this hardware generation, they're still 9 years behind or so. Microsoft are doing okay, it just looks bad compared to the PS4. There's no reason at all for Sony to effectively hit the reset button on this. It'd only benefit their competitors. MS have more reason to do it, but if they dump the Xbone and try for an Xbox 1080 or whatever the hell (which can actually run games at 1080p, huhuhu) it'll just alienate their fans and potential customers even more.

I'm enjoying this gen. Has anyone even considered getting a more advanced console yet?

It will be interesting to see what develops on PC in the mean time, it was already ahead graphically over the PS4 at release - the next 2-3 years will be very interesting. But I am concerned that companies are ill equipped to make the most of the tech, the time its taken for proper ps4 games to come out is what 18-20 months since release, that's only gonna get longer next gen.

It's much too early to even think about a PS5. As long as game development takes, generations of consoles could become longer. Of course it could be argued that with the architecture of the PS4 development could easily be moved to a new console and be dual release like some games were at the start of this gen.

They should make it backwards compatible with every single Playstation, that way it starts with more games than ever rather than pushing remastered games out every 5 minutes. Although the I don't mind the odd few like TLOU and Unchartered collection.

The cost of making a console probably isn't all that much of a problem when you've sold almost 36 million units in a little over 2 years. I wonder what the exact sales will be when it goes off sale? 50? 60? The amount of cash they will have made at the end will be staggering.

2019 sounds about right to me. That's maybe only 3 years from now - although closer to 4 as I doubt it will launch until November, Lets not forget that the PS4 has also been out now for over 2 years. By the time a new console arrives - assuming 2019 is the year, the PS4 will be 6 years old.
The PS3 was 7 years old by the time the PS4 launched and celebrates its 10 yr anniversary this year and cannot run a lot of games - Witcher 3, Batman: Arkham Knight etc (released 2015). I doubt many people here have much technology in their house as old as a PS3 (unless of course they are 'retro gamers'. I doubt anyone still uses a mobile, computer/laptop etc from 2006.
I also doubt that the PS5, if launched in 2019, PS4 games/support etc will suddenly cease but go on for a few more years - like the current PS3.

Neither Sony nor Microsoft are hitting reset on a new console yet. They are both doing extremely well and only fan boys and gaming extremists consider the xbox1 a failure. The console business is as healthy as ever.

I doubt it.... But alright. With both consoles selling as well as they are and game development taking longer, I can't see it happening that soon.

So, 2018, 2019 or 2020, thanks for narrowing that down for us Pachter, I would have never guessed something like home consoles that get new versions every 5 to 6 years would get a new version in 5 or 6 years. All hail the prophesier Pacheter!!

Things to look forward to in PS5 - 4k resolution games to match all the 4k tvs then; a new drive to run whatever comes after blu-ray that the PS4 won't support - blu-K?; hardware that can run VR properly as the PS4 needs an extra helper box. PS5 is about as "Given" a bet as one can get.

Also, NX may be next gen in 2016 or 2017, or it may be a Ouya, or a 4DS. Whatever it is, the videogame geek historians will likley consider it the first of the "next gen" consoles, if it is a powerful home console and not a portable Wii U. We shall see.

It sounds like the right amount of time, but it's still too early to be thinking about a PS5. It's only been 3 years.

It's definitely too early for me to be thinking about one. I still don't have a PS4!

November 2019, 4K at 60fps, BC with PS4, built in VR and folders.....
PS who listens to Pachter anymore....

I wouldn't describe 2019 as early, that's the most expected timeframe. Most generations have been shorter than that, and only a few have been just a bit over that. PS3 in Europe was just over six years, and that's considered a long gen. I could even see it at 2018 to be honest.

@SonyInfinity Nobody is saying that a 2019 release for Gen 9 consoles would be indicative of 'failure' for Gen 8. The fact is that technological advancements dictate the shelf-life of any product but that doesn't mean that the current generation is unsuccessful. If anything the success of current generation is more likely to lead to future generations but to stay successful, the need to deliver a new generation is also essential.

6 years is a very long time in terms of technology. The very first iPhone for example launched in July 2007 - 8 months after the PS3 launched and by modern mobile phone standards, its antiquated. A modern iPhone has more RAM than a PS3 - 2GB compared to 512mb.

We often think of the console race currently as a 2 horse race. I know Nintendo also have a console but they have opted not to compete directly and have done for a few generations now - opting to offer something different and unique. Something I expect them to continue doing with its NX.

Before the PS4/XB1 were actually announced, Many people actually believe the gen 7 consoles had peaked, and were significantly out-dated. Many were surprised by the fact the gen 8 consoles hadn't actually been announced let alone released. Nobody considers the gen 7 consoles as 'failures' just because thy have been superseded. The fact that it is 'healthy' is more likely to ensure a 9th generation.

@BAMozzy I agree cometely, and maybe didn't make myself quite clear enough. Many around the net are proposing that Microsoft will announce a new console within 2 years or so, thereby forcing Sony to do the same. Their reasoning behind this is Sony's large lead in console sales. I am simply saying I don't think this is true and predict 3 or more years until we get a new console. Probably 2020. Microsoft and Sony are both doing great and the One is outselling it's predecessor, no need for a reset yet imo.

@rjejr Seems like the controller will be the portable version of the NX, as the entire face is rumored to be a touch screen with analog sticks and triggers for good measure. I think Ninty realizes their bread and butter is in the handheld market at this point. So make a console that is competent and can keep up with the ps4 and X1 but that also comes with the most powerful handheld to date. The problem I see in this is the games and 3rd party developers especially. Will they be forced to make 2 versions of every game? Will the handheld component be strong enough to run the games exactly as the home unit? Doubtful. I really hope they have learned from their mistakes, I am just wary that they actually have.

I also think at this point that Ninty has zeroed in on the "childrens" market. That is fine and will surely make them money, but excludes people like me who prefer more mature experiences.

When ever it is released I will be waiting 18 months - 2 years before getting the console just so it can get some games. It will be interesting to see if they try and push digital side of games a lot more and have a lot less in retail shops.

I actually would not mind having more regular console releases each with backward compatibility. The PS consoles are always so far behind the PC market waiting 7 years everytime just means it is always playing catch up.

@SonyInfinity MS has a very successful console and whilst it may not be as successful as Sony's (maybe because of the DRM issue that never actually became an issue and the rumour that Kinect could be used to spy by the CIA), its still sold more than its predecessors and continues to sell well.
That though is no bearing on when a 'new' generation of console is likely to release. Many considered the release date of the XB1/PS4 were long overdue and should have released at least a year earlier but that was based purely on technological advancements - personally I think this is more likely to dictate when Gen 9 is released.
Like I pointed out, Mobile phones for example have more RAM than gen 7 consoles - tablets too. In 3 years time, we could see mobiles and tablets with more ram and maybe even faster cpu's than gen 8 consoles. What we consider 'cutting edge' changes radically.
Gen 8 consoles are struggling to deliver 1080p/60fps consistently with every game - not that I consider either as of great importance but many see this as a sign that consoles are already lacking in power - especially as gaming PC's were delivering higher resolution and frame rates.
When gen 7 released, although they had less power than PC's in terms of spec, the fact that these were dedicated gaming set-ups, it took a while for PC's (very high end gaming PC's the exception but these cost a LOT more) to catch up and then surpass the consoles. However with Gen 8, most average PC's can match the gaming performance, if not beat a console. This itself is more likely to hasten the next generation of console. When developers cannot make the games they want for console and have to compromise significantly or restrict themselves to PC only, this will also hasten the development and release of gen 9.
Again, none of these factors are based on the 'success' of Gen 8. The fact these are 'successful' has guaranteed a gen 9.

@BAMozzy Agreed, although I do believe current success can lengthen a console generation. Case in point, the wildly successful ps2 carried on for nearly a year after the 360 released. IMO Sony was in no hurry, as their console was still doing really well. In some instances the commercial failure of a console can hasten the next gen, and vice versa.

I really don't feel like thinking about "next gen" right now, I just bought a PS4 a few months ago.

I say 2020-2022 for the ps5
NX 2017-2020
Xbox whatever it called 2021

I'll take whatever comes out just as long as it plays games as brilliantly as this gen. Don't mind 2 years or 5 years. At the end of the day I love this crazy fun filled 'escapist' hobby!! Roll on PS5

I will be very, very surprised if we hear nothing about next gen at e3 2018. This gen was built around a simplified architecture mainly to help simplify and speed up development, but also I think so they can release new gen at a quicker clip. The big however though, comes down to making the next gen fully bc with ps4/x1, a failure to do that by either company could be a massive misstep. Essentially I think we could start seeing a more pc type release, games with minimum req being ps4/x1, but designed for ps5/x2. Fine by me personally.

I was hoping 5 years tops for the new PS5, especially with Sony betting on VR. We didn't have a good 2015 thanks to the current hardware, but despite. Games like The Witcher and Bloodborne, which are just awesome, couldn't be enjoyed as intended and you even racing games don't target a steady 60fps anymore.

Guess we're all too busy not showing fans of the "other console" we expected more, to see this generation can't hold a candle to the previous ones we had. People who expect leaps in performance like we saw last gen with GTA V and TLOU will be sorely disappointed; currently they're squeezing every little bit of power out of it, there isn't a whole lot more devs can do.

Let's be realistic here, with the advent of 3D graphic cards for the PC, every home console since the PS2 era has pretty much been eclipsed within 1 or 2 years after launch.

This generation is no different, just with the advent of social media, all the PC elitist like to complain about it.

Trust me, I wasn't expecting the majority of games to hit 60 FPS this gen, you shouldn't either. Regardless, as long as consoles are selling, developers will make it work.

Thinking about next gen when it's like 4-5 years away,if not more, just seems stupid at this point

@rjejr Sure, he's stating the obvious, but looking at this comment section, there are people suggesting that Sony doesn't need to think about new hardware for a good few years, let alone release one. Some are expecting the PS4 to last another decade, that's certainly not going to happen. 2018/2019 is when we can expect something new. New hardware every 5/6 years is just necessary, technology improves fast.

everyone should stop reading the moment it reaches "pachter"

I'm guessing 2020 for both PS5 and whatever Microsoft calls the 4th Xbox.

2019 is about right it wouldn't surprise me to see the PS5 released Nov 2019, especially seeing the PS4 using off the shelf parts. 5-6 years is a long time for hardware to stay frozen in time, as everything else advances.

I would hate new consoles popping up in 2018. We're only now starting to get into the swing of the current gen. Also, Sony is doing fantastic (and MS is doing reasonably well, all things considered) that I can't see them not riding this out to it's peak profitability.

2020 seems a bit more realistic. But who knows. Maybe VR will be the success story everyone thinks it will be, and extend this generation by a couple of years. Or NX will be so revolutionary that it will shorten this generation by a couple of years.

2018 at the earliest, 2020 at the latest, IMO.

I think people forget that the last generation lasted as long as it did was in part due to the global economic recession starting in 2008. I reckon Microsoft and Sony both wagered that the consumer market wasn't ideal for new consoles......so they cheaply extended the generation with Move and Kinect, after seeing the Wii dominant.

Fine by me. PS4 and Xbox One should've been on shelves at least a year earlier than they were. I stand by what I've been saying though, the next PlayStation and Xbox will not be PS5 and Xbox 'Two'. They're going to be much different from consoles in the traditional sense. Only company I see in the home console game next-gen is Nintendo.

@Gamer83

In which ways? I don't think gameplay via streaming has worked all the well or caught on (looking at you PS Now). I do see the phasing out of the disc drive by next gen however.

i think we don't need analyst to tell us that, next gen will arrive in 7th year of current gen.. XD

@Utena-mobile If VR is a huge success, I expect the opposite, it'll warrant new hardware even sooner. VR is a weird piece of tech that needs incredibly powerful hardware to make it look just as good as any other game. In a few years, when the Rift has dropped in price, and other VR devices have appeared on the market, there will be an even bigger need to get new hardware out the door.

If future PS home consoles will be fully (I mean FULLY) backwards compatible (basically like a pc) then the new home console release cycle could be much quicker.
I would not mind spending 400 EUR for upgrading after each 5 or so years while keep all my older and current game library intact. IMHO that would be pretty smart in a sense that this would tie gamers to a specific brand for a very long time.

as the tech is growing fast , so they will need to evolve the consoles fast as well .

Nintendo is getting ready to talk about the NX, which means, talk and rumors will be surrounding Sony and Microsoft getting ready to release another console....SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT!

Sony won't release another console for quite a few more years...right now, they have a massive hit, and they'd be dumb to release one sooner than expected (seems that all of their consoles stick around for 7 years before a new one arrives).

Also, to make one backwards compatible with PS1, PS2, PS3 and PS4 and possibly even PSP and VITA would be crazy! It would be an ultimate console, but I'd hate to see the price!!!!

Wait, Pachter said it? It's confirmed, then: not gonna happen.

@Mattym92 Aren't PS4s sold at a loss, though? If so, it's all about software sales to make Sony a profit, not hardware.

@JoeBlogs Its certainly probable that developers will push the consoles over the course of its generation to the point that maybe sacrifices will be made in either resolution or frame rate. The point I was making though was that at the time of launch, PCs were consistently delivering 1080p/60fps when compared to the launch games on consoles like BF4 for example. You would expect a console at launch to be capable of delivering the highest possible resolution/frame rate and be at least comparable with PC versions (maybe not the very high end ones) particularly as the majority of games are also on the previous gen too. As the developers push the hardware over time, then maybe towards the end of its lifespan, games will need to make those sacrifices.
I know that these consoles are more than capable of delivering 1080p/60fps games as we have seen but there are also a lot of games that are running on PC's at 1080p/60fps (min) and at 30fps and sometimes less 1080p too - often not always with a stable/fixed frame rate either. - The Witcher 3 is a good example.
I know developers can make sacrifices (draw distances, less AI like wildlife, less particles etc etc), use a bit of technical wizardry (like variable resolutions as per the Witcher 3 again on XB1) or a combination but you expect that towards the end of its life.
Personally I don't care that much about Resolution (I own an XB1) or Frame Rate (my favourite games and the majority of GotY winners from the last 10 years are 30fps) but from a technological perspective it is a bit disappointing.

@JoeBlogs The launch price was similar to the launch price of the gen 7 consoles. The PS3 for example had a launch price of £425 in the UK and the the Xbox 360 was around £280 but if you add in the Kinect price you get to £400. If you also factor in 'inflation' then the gen 8 consoles are cheaper - significantly in the case of the PS4.
It is possible to build a PC with similar specs for around the same money that can run BF4 at 1080p/60fps minimum - particularly if you take away the cost of the OS - often with a much higher internal HDD too. I appreciate that this doesn't cover the cost of R&D of these but from a tech standpoint, the hardware available at the time and at a similar cost can out-perform these.
At the time of the Gen 7 launch, there was no way you could build a PC capable of running console quality games for that amount of money.
Like I said though, from my perspective, its not about resolutions and frame rates. I am merely saying though that from a technological point of view, its disappointing. It also shows its limitations. I certainly don't expect a console to compete with the top end gaming rigs costing 4+ times as much but if it can't match a more basic PC at launch, then where will it be in 5-6yrs time? Like you said, over time you can expect things like resolution to drop a bit or frame rate as developers push themselves. If it can't hit 1080p/60fps now without compromise, will we see games dropping to 720p or having long loading screens? Technology and advancement/expectations are more likely to force the manufacturers to consider their gen 9 consoles and when to release. The point of my original post was that the overall success of Gen 8 has little to do with the timing of gen 9 but more to do with the current technology. Gen 7 was very successful and yet many people expected/wanted a gen 8 far sooner than it arrived primarily because of current technology.

From a technical standpoint I would have thought the next generation would bring 4k gaming to the living room, but I think VR might actually contribute to the longevity of this current generation - it's an experiment that needs to be proven or disproven before the next stage can truly begin to take shape.

Dear god! I JUST got the ps4!

@Octane "technology improves fast"

The jaded consumer in me feels like Sony purposely left out 4k games from the PS4 just to have them in the PS5. Along w/ MGSV4k, TLoU4k, GoWCollection4k, Ucharted4k - which is a nice play on words as Uncharted will have 4 games, still no golden Abyss, in 4k, shortened to "4k", etc.

Man, how big would a 4k res game be, 200GB? PS5 better ship w/ 2TB standard.

@JoeBlogs The way I see it, I think consoles shouldn't need better optimisation techniques or access to extra cores originally planned for other things at launch. A console should be capable to run the 'launch' era games at a certain standard - particularly as a lot of these games also run on the previous generation too.
As far as the architecture is concerned, the PS4 is very similar to a PC - part of the reason it is much easier to develop games - particularly multi-platform games. I doubt the PS4 in particular has radically different optimisation options to those on PC
Midway through its expected life cycle, you would expect developers to be pushing themselves rather than the console having left last gen development behind. Towards the end though, you expect developers to be looking at optimising techniques and maybe managing the hardware (like utilising cores that were previously unavailable - really stretching everything out of it - not midway through.
I know some of this also comes down to the API's as a lot of those in use are still not designed with multi-core cpu's in mind. A single core is having to do all the work on one aspect - like graphics, and therefore is limited to a set number of processes. The next generation of API's though are (supposed to be) able to share all processes across all available cores. At the moment, with the older API's this limits the maximum number of processes possible by a specific aspect to 1.6ghz on a PS4. Often core 0 is working at 95%+ capacity whilst the other cores operate at around 30% - as this core 0 hits 100%, that's when frame rate drops or we see issues with rendering etc. The new API's would spread this across multiple cores - effectively making them all work together and at similar capacities (in theory).
I have seen this in 'demo's' - mainly with DirectX12 but I know PS4 API's are likely to do the same too.

@JoeBlogs The PS3's architecture was a lot more complex and in many ways more limiting too. Its part of the reason that multi-platform releases struggled to match the exclusives. Some would argue though that MGS4 was one of the best looking games of that generation. Its RAM for example was 2x 256mb that could not work together where as PC's and the Xbox 360 had 512mb of RAM that was free for developers to utilise how they wished. They could allocate more RAM to specific areas.
At launch though these consoles had no problems really with the games that released across multi-platforms - inc PC as well as multi-gen too - those that also released on the original xbox and PS2. It took a few years for PC's again not the very high end and extremely expensive ones, to catch-up. PC's costing 2-3 times more couldn't run games as well when these consoles released - admittedly the majority of PC's are not built specifically for gaming where as consoles were specifically optimised for this. It took much higher spec PC's to deliver a similar gaming experience.
If you look at 'gaming' PC minimum specs required to run a modern game at 1080p/60fps, it looks like a console should easily run these games. 4mb of DDR3 RAM yet consoles have 8 - the PS4 has faster GDDR5. Both have equivalent Radeon HD 7000 series but the PS4 is superior here so it is somewhat surprising that similar specced PC's can deliver a higher resolution and/or higher frame rate.
It hasn't affected my enjoyment of these games at all. The only reason I mentioned it was for comparison and what's more likely to lead to gen 9 consoles. Even if Sony/MS announced their follow-ups this year, it is no reflection on the 'successfulness' of these consoles but a technological need.
I doubt they will though as sales continue to be high. There are of course ways that developers can push and improve the games beyond currently available - some of those are down to new game engines, new APi's and of course allowing developers to utilise additional CPU cores too. Once these are exhausted and at their limit forcing developers to be more creative with their games and how they operate (reducing draw distances in higher action areas for example - this doesn't mean 'fogging' but making them occur in built up areas, enemies spawning a lot closer and 'just' out of sight to give the illusion they were already there before you spot them etc, that's the time that the consoles have reached their technological end - especially if there is technology (hardware and/or software) that has no need to do this.

@JoeBlogs I am not denying that these games look great. The point I am making is that an average PC would have no issue running these games and at higher resolution and/or frame rate - Look at Project Cars (the closest thing to Driveclub) - it can run up to 12k resolution - although I doubt many PC's are capable of running it that high and no doubt a higher frame rate too. PC's also have an OS and some of the RAM is used for this. The PS4 certainly doesn't require 'half' of its RAM for the OS - probably 1GB with the remainder accessible to developers for gaming.
Many people are more critical over the frame rate. Uncharted 4's campaign will be running at 30fps, same as the Witcher 3 did. The Witcher 3 though on PC is 60fps and can run up to 4k (again if you have the hardware). I don't know the cost of building a PC capable of running the Witcher 3 at 1080p/60fps with similar optimisation (i.e just for the increase in frame rate) as I don't game on PC myself or build them to know the 'costs'. Having seen some of the 4K imagery from the Witcher 3 - its incredible but that doesn't mean the console version is 'ugly' or unplayable at 30fps. Same as other 1080p/30fps games.
As I stated, I personally don't have an issue with 30fps in these style of games. Its not impacted on them winning game of the year awards - in fact the majority of GotY's have been 30fps games.

@Matroska Actually, Nintendo is releasing its newest home console this year. It is suppose to be as good, if not better than the PS4 and the Xbox1. Expect to see it in the second half of the year.

There was literally no need for this generation to arrive when it did. 2014/15 would been a better target year.

Ps4 arrived and the actual "generational leap" has been evidence as barely sod all except for exactly the same console with shinier graphics and a "share" button. This gen has brought nothing new.

To supersede this is only 3 years from now is just retarded. The only thing that would conjure such a colossal premature ejaculate is if the NX finds a foothold and starts taking back Nintendo's share of the market.

Sony should not even think of releasing new hardware this side of 2020. If they do, I wouldn't be buying one till year 3 after its release. There would literally be no point and you'd have another Sony console with nothing to play on for the first 18-24 months except for remasters of games you already have on your ps4.

Furthermore, Sony don't profit on hardware. The hardware gives them an installed username to which they can sell software from which they claim a licence from the developers. The higher the user base the huger the profit return on software licence. If they get 100,000,000 users to offer as customers to developers from which they would make a fortune in licences. Why would would they render that obsolete so soon???? Makes no sense, technically, financially, logically or morally.

@ricklongo they could well be, it didn't even cross my mind. There goes the profit I thought they'd have made. Oh well. I still imagine there'll be another Playstation after this one, they're doing so well out of the PS4.

@BAMozzy A Titan X graphics card, the kind of thing people that run TW3 at 4k@60fps have TWO of in their PC, costs about £600.

Even on peoples' amazing PCs like that, Novigrad still ran at below 60fps. Just not a very well put together game. And it didn't really run at 30fps on PS4, it often ran at 20fps. There's no question the PS4 isn't anywhere near as good as a top end PC. The thing is, the vast majority of PC gamers don't have that sort of PC either. The average PC according to Steam's surveys is worse than a PS4.

There is no issue of release date if the ps5 is compatible with all ps4 games, digital and disc, and all psn purchases.

The ps5 would then be basically a more powerfull ps4 along with anything new for next gen. Like upgrading a pc. This is what i think microsoft will do with their next xbox, and maybe sooner than 2019.