Will Death Stranding be a big success? It's a question that's been rekindled by the arrival of reviews for the game, and although Hideo Kojima's latest project does have a very healthy Metascore of 84, it's still tough to say whether the unorthodox experience will break into the mainstream market.
The NPD Group's Mat Piscatella has told GameDaily.biz that even he's having trouble predicting the level of success that Death Stranding will walk away with. Piscatella, who regularly shares interesting NPD sales data over on Twitter, says that Death Stranding has "a pretty large range of forecast possibilities" ahead of its launch later this week.
"The 84 Metacritic score suggests the game shouldn't come out on either a high or low end of the sales spectrum, but where it will fall? Very difficult to say. If I had to make a call, I'd say a top 20 selling game of the year, but also wouldn't be surprised if it placed somewhere else. As with everything else about this game, the forecast is something that's tough to wrap one's head around," he explains.
It's certainly an intriguing topic when you consider Death Stranding's situation. It's a title that's trying a lot of new and weird things -- it's a game that's destined to split opinion for years to come -- but at the same time, it's got the might of Sony's marketing machine behind it, and as shown by the publisher's range of first-party offerings this generation, that's one heck of an advantage.
How do you think Death Stranding will perform in terms of sales? Place your bets in the comments section below.
[source gamedaily.biz]
Comments 21
I would guess it will sell well but probably not hit the same heights as say, Days Gone. Pure speculation though - I am not sure.
I think it’s silly to wonder whether this will break into the mainstream market when the marketing is gigantic. They are selling it like a mainstream product. Now, whether it meets Sony’s internal expectations is another question. And yes, I do expect to see used copies going for under 20 fairly fast, a natural combination of a polarizing title and a big launch.
Im gonna say 2-3 million just on name alone. With another 2-3 to follow. Lifetime less than 10 mil but more than 6. Just a guess
I think it'll do better than a game like Detroit: Become Human but worse than something like Days Gone. I also think that will be considered a success for all involved.
The metacritic score is largely irrelevant and in this world marketing is king and this game seems to be everywhere at the moment, one piece of luck is how EA have tarnished the Star Wars name which could affect that games sales next week. I think it'll do really well personally
Pretty niche game will sell but probably not in good numbers considering the hype behind it
I predict 5 mil at worst.
I think it'll do fine. Better than most games out there recently, at least. The exposure this game has had through different means is crazy.
A lot of connections going on.
I have to agree with him. It won't blow 2019 releases out of the water, but it'll definitely sell a lot of copies.
@get2sammyb Do we know just how well Days Gone has actually done? Cos Sony haven't been very quick to share numbers.
All I know is I'm getting it day one. I havent added a new title to my trophy list in a while but I have to play this bizarre and fascinating game for myself.
@AdamNovice According to NPD Group Days Gone is the 6'th best selling exclusive on PS4 since the console's release. It is ahead of Infamous:Second Son and right behind Bloodborne.
Its Hideo Kojima.
The publicity is off the charts.
This will sell 3 mill plus easily
I think it will sell pretty high numbers, Kojima has a big following, PS4 is a massively popular console, plus loads of marketing. I do want to try the game myself, but MediEvil is keeping me playing...
Why do people, mainly the press, think reviews scores are related to sales? I understand the interest but I dont see it that way at all.
@JJ2 Because they are dumbasses lol
In regards to how well it will sell, it would have sold better if they waited to announce it was going to pc 3 months after launch.
I can't see it flopping but I don't think it will reach the big heights of past real sony exclusives. In saying that I love me my sci fi out there shiz so looking forward to it even if the gameplay is the low point.
@DeepSpace5D Wasn't aware of that, thanks.
I think the IGN review was completely damaging. I know a lot of people that lost interest and canceled preorders because they did zero further research and have to be told what they should like.
Its a game that I think would be difficult to predict. The Metacritic score isn't necessarily an indicator as games have scored higher but would be considered 'niche' outside of Japan for example and this could be 'niche' too - weird for many (not that weird is necessarily a good or bad thing).
It really depends on whether a lot are willing to give this a chance or not. Like Nioh, this has the advantage of being available (or will be) to more than just Sony gamers and with the Game Awards being BIG Kojima fans, it may be a game that has 'bursts' of sales due to later releases and promotions that see the sales continue relatively steadily over time instead of sell big at release and drop off.
The reviews, whilst respectable if taken as a whole do seem to be very divisive with some giving it the maximum marks they can whilst others seem to think its average at best. When the general gamers get their hands on it, they could have an impact on sales - either persuade those on the fence to give it a go or convince them to put their money else where.
@BAMozzy
You summed it up very well. Nearly impossible to predict but i'd say overall it will sell enough to at least break-even.
it will be the fastest selling first party new IP on ps4
I reckon it'll make a profit, but I'd hope that it does really well.
I'm not buying it day one (just got PS Now and I'm addicted to Fallout New Vegas right now), but I'll pick it up at some point. Might not be too appealing (to me! Not to everyone) gameplay wise but it's Kojima and looks like the plot will be enough for me to enjoy it.
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