
Former GamesIndustry.biz journalist Christopher Dring (now contributing to VGC again, you love to see it) says that one of the unexpected upsides to Xbox's Game Pass subscription service, at least for Sony, is that certain additions to the service can have a "strong impact" on PlayStation sales.
In an industry Q&A over on InstallBaseForum (thanks, PSU), Dring was asked his thoughts on the effect the subscription-based Game Pass has had on the premium game market. He said that it could be something of a double-edged sword, hurting big blockbuster titles like Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, and paradoxically increasing sales on PS5. Expanding, he explained:
"Anecdotally, games that are in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of its expected premium sales on Xbox. That’s the figure that gets thrown around. It’s less if it’s a big mainstream release, but generally… look at how low Hellblade 2 charted. Or where Indiana Jones came. Or even Starfield. Game Pass clearly hurt sales of those titles on Xbox. But… if it’s a game on multiple platforms, it can be beneficial. That surge in players on Xbox can have a strong impact on sales on PlayStation, for instance."
That said, Game Pass certainly plays a part in expanding the types of games the average subscriber is exposed to in a given year, which Dring acknowledges: "We know from data that there are a lot of people that only play Call of Duty. And if some of those people decided to get Call of Duty this year via Game Pass, and those very same people took the opportunity to play some other Game Pass games, games they wouldn’t have otherwise played… it’s hard to argue that’s a bad thing."
What do you think of Dring's revelations? Can you see how Game Pass hype could translate into greater sales on PS5? Let us know in the comments section below.
[source installbaseforum.com, via psu.com]
Comments 46
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Day 1 doesnt make financial sense but if one of the richest companies in the world doesnt make as much money as they could why should i care doesnt stop me using gamepass to play stuff like black ops and indiana jones day 1
Hard to say. Personally I don't think gp is a hype generator in general. Outriders, Back for Blood and Exoprimal were day 1 gp games and it didn't work that well for any of them. When I want to think about the Fall Guys or the Rocket League of gp the only example that comes to mind is Party Animals and I don't know enough about the game to say that the gp exposure was the key for its success BUT maybe that is just a perspective problem because the people who are in charge to make xbox games viral (media, streamers, content creators, people on reddit, etc) play those games on pc so I just assume they are playing on steam lol when maybe they are indeed using gp.
We don't have a proper test case yet. Grounded and Sea Of Thieves are live service. COD is COD.
Pentiment was always niche and so was HIFI RUSH. Indiana Jones will be a major one in actually testing this theory as a AAA single player game. Because Indy didn't really set steam on fire either.
Obvious really isn't it? If a game say starfield for example launches on game pass day one and it's sales are abysmal because people are getting it for nothing and then it launches on PlayStation where everybody has to pay a premium for it then of course its going to increase sales. Its not a double edged sword..its called common sense.
@Northern_munkey Ohhh. Now I get it. That definitely makes sense. It’s not so much surging sales, but more profit? Is that what I’m understanding?
@LavenderShroud pretty much just worded in a more palatable way.
I guess this is why we don’t see GT7 and Spider Man and MLB the show in Sony’s service, yet GP get’s MLB the show in GP every year. I mean that’s a story in itself. But while we know the service takes away some sales. It also brings in around 8 Billion a year last said by MS. So a service can work to a degree. But MS will continue to bring games to PC and PS and other cloud devices in the future. I would just like to see Sony beef up their service offering a little more or at the very least have more sales on their older games so players on a budget can access them once they’ve reached a level of sales. Now thats not me. If a game is great i buy it at full price. But we can’t always just think about our needs when writing articles or talking about the industry as a whole. We have to look at all budgets and ways player access games. To me GP does a good job of that as it’s one option.
I hope it makes them more money on Playstation because in the past there were no sales on Playstation because they didnt sell anything.
@Whately86 nice to see the first comment being so relevant 🤣
Never understood this pointless trend on YouTube etc of people commenting first. it's just sad
I read the article and the comments above and still don’t get the logic.
GP makes games on Xbox more popular, friends and people in the internet talk more about it, so PlayStation sales are higher? Is that the logic?
It’s really simple. Subsidized Gamepass has a high running cost for Microsoft. Whom as a software entity can afford to pay studios off to get their titles on the platform. Subsidized gamepass doesn’t exist on PlayStation which has a very sizable base this generation compared to Xbox. The PlayStation base is still accustomed to buying or renting games that they want. So for Microsoft whom is positioning themselves as a publisher it’s good news to them that people still want outright ownership. As if subsidized game pass was so appealing people would have been rushing to get series consoles worldwide which isn’t the case. If the roles were reversed and Xbox had such a lead, I believe we wouldn’t see huge games like COD as day 1 games. As with a large user base a game like COD would bring in so much money if bought outright. MS made a lot of money through their acquisition because COD was going to sell regardless. As there are many steam and a bigger PlayStation fan base. MS has so many suit types and if they were in the lead things would be different. Which is why they spin subsidized gamepass as they do.
@breakneck Sea of Thieves may be live service title but it had no content when it released other than exploring & didn't review well. if it wasn't for Games Pass it probably be lucky if it would have lasted more than a year.
I always read that people try games on GP and then buy them on PS5.
@Northern_munkey Thanks! You explained it much better than the article, I was worried I was just stupid or something…
I'm sure game pass doesn't increase actual sales, but I must admit I'm a fan of the concept. Like the article said I have been exposed to more types of games that I wouldn't normally have played (such as the fantastic Chants of Senaar). And it does mean that I play every xbox first party game and, although the quality isn't always there, sometimes games like Indiana Jones come along and surprise me with how good they end up being
@HonestHick
Where does that come from? As far as I’m aware the last time MS mentioned gamepass revenue in a financial release it was “almost $1b a quarter”. PS Plus is actually slightly over $1b a quarter btw, which I do think really puts into perspective just how profitable gamepass can possibly be given that is likely costs considerably more, both in real costs and opportunity costs.
Edit: I found the $8b number(actually $7.8b) that was their forecast revenue for 2030. However, this is based on the same estimate that had them target 100m subscribers by 2030. Although those numbers don’t really add up.
Edit 2: Also of note, Xbox is aiming for $1.4b in advertising revenue by 2030…
Did we actually get any info on where Indiana Jones charted? I thought Dring didn't do the sales charts because he was leaving biz although I know he said he's seen the numbers so I guess this is confirmation that Indy flopped in sales in Europe and Jez was obviously lying again lol.
Personally I think gamepass is one of the best things to happen in a long time in gaming
@Stickleman Is it ? xbox kind of decides which games You play, but if You play a lot of games it is likely cheaper than buying the games individually. But is it a good thing that xbox selects the games for You rather than You selecting the games You actually want to play?
Of course it does. This works for all subscription services, it gives them a larger initial player base day 1, and importantly more mindshare with news articles, guides and videos. Effectively more media publicity AND more word of mouth recommendations.
The same was true of a lot of Day 1 games on PS+ like Fall Guys, Rocket League etc. Do you think so many people would be talking about Animal Well if it hadn't been on PS+ Day 1. I hadn't even heard of it and a week or two later it was my GOTY.
@Northern_munkey gamepass is £180 a year in the UK, I think. It's hardly 'nothing'
that aside, I agree though
I've always thought the best collection is the one that you own instead of the games that are on a subscription service that can disappear at any time and you lose access to them even if you have paid for a subscription
@HonestHick 8 Billion and what is the profit in the end?
@Flaming_Kaiser couldn’t tell you. I don’t work at MS. But Phil said they spend 1 billion alone in getting games to the service. Plus you’d have other expenses. My point was when others write articles about GP they make it sound like it’s a non profit service. I am sure it’s less profit than other means. But it’s also designed to keep you in the ecosystem spending money on other Xbox things. Much like the PS services. They keep you in Sony’s ecosystem. Thats all Amazon Prime is as well. So i think there’s a place for them. It’s just a fine line of budgeting it right. Now if MS is doing that correctly or not i can not say. I wouldn’t have access to that information.
@ChrisDeku Yeah that quote was a while back. Said they spent around 1 billion a year bringing titles to the service. The thing is it does bring in decent money. But as to how that money is spent and managed, i have no access to that information. But overall i think the service can be good for the company and the player if balanced and handled right. As to what the exact monthly numbers are i think it’s hard to say, but that was the last quote from MS that i seen. So i shared it as there number and not mine 😊
Can doesn't mean it will.
It really depends on the game, an indie publisher might get hurt with the loss of revenue.
Also, one fun fact: releasing on PS5 and PC D1 also increases the chances of sale for both platforms.
@Northern_munkey n but Indiana jones was the second best selling game in America in December, cod was first. seems gamepass isnt effecting sales that much
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@rusty82 I dont understand it either. But was going to sleep here in Rio and confronted by the oportunity.
Couldnt find anything relvant to say. But I took my shot.
Worth it. Today feels better already.
This is fascinating information, but makes perfect sense. The GP service has essentially disabled game sales on their own platform, but the advertising aspects of getting attention to your game does create hype for other ecosystems. We should expect Xbox studio games to continue to come to PS5 so PlayStation gamers can subsidize those projects.
It does beg the question: does this data affect Sony’s strategy for their own first and second party output? Perhaps some projects would get a boost in sales on PC if they were included on PS+? (In an alternate timeline maybe Concord releases on PS+ Extra and gets a sales bump with people buying it on PC) Or moreover, since they have opened the door to releasing on Switch, would Lego Horizons have sold better on Switch if it would have been included on PS+ Extra? The Switch is fertile ground for PlayStation games, but would it be worth the reduction in sales on your own console? Probably not.
I have an XBOX Series X with about 9 months of Game Pass Ultimate remaining. It's hooked up to the same TV as my PS5 Pro.
The weird thing is that I still barely touch my XBOX, and if a few of these games like Indiana Jones or Starfield were on my PS5, I would play them more, even if I had to buy them.
Interestingly, the XBOX seems to play Ultra HD 4K Blu Ray discs better than my PS5 and PS5 Pro. I tested Lord of the Rings 4K Blu Ray movies and Batman: Dark Knight Trilogy discs. I don't know why this is the case, but I'm keeping my XBOX as a Blu Ray player.
You get a similar affect with discounts. Valve talked about how a game going on discount could boost sales after the discount ended.
Lots of people buy the game during the discount. If it's good they talk about it to their friends, and their friends buy it. It makes sense.
Thing is there can be some subtle longer term effects. If I know games cycle in and out of discounts ~every 2 months (which is true), then after a while when my friends recommend the game, I'll just wait until the next discount.
@Toot1st indeed it was and it will sell even more on the ps5..that's kind of my point 🙄
This comment is an Xbox.
@Toot1st It wasn’t the second best selling game in December, just the week it released, a week in which no other notable games released.
Steam sales numbers are known roughly and are not strong
@rusty82 I can't believe people still do it, been going on for years. Maybe they are just trapped in time or think they (maybe actually are) 10 years old.
@8bit4Life
I was with you until the 4k BD comment. My Xbox is utter trash as a BD player. I have to use a PS5 for that since I can't get a drive for my Pro.
“We know from data that there are a lot of people that only play Call of Duty”
… I cannot even imagine a more unfulfilling gaming life experience than missing out on literally any other genre for the sake of solely existing in some generic ‘Murrica propaganda shooter series. 😅
(apologies to any “COD-only” players out there, but… jeez, try anything else sometime, wow) ✨
I still don't understand why Xbox don't market Game Pass more. Obviously people like myself and others here know about it, but in general, I don't think it's particularly well known. It's an amazing deal for families and casuals who might normally buy 2-3 games a year or just play the likes of COD.
But then, I think I probably know the way to fix all the issues with PlayStation, Nintendo and Xbox despite having never worked in the games industry ever. 😂
It depends...because it's always money flow. If people are paying less for games (thanks to game pass), developers get less money. Game pass can suck in more people similarly like micro transactions. Because giving periodically low amount is for someone better than giving high amount one time. Amd that can mean, more people financing developers. But I don't know exact numbers. I think it can lead to dominating quantity over quality.
I'm for mor direct access. Developer makes game and I will pay him for it. I want to give money to that developer. And not to some company, which will somehow pay the developer. It's more complicated of course because when company like Sony owns studio, money goes still over Sony. But for me it's about supporting quality. Not consuming games. Maybe I'm naive. But I believe in it .
The problem of game pass is that it doesn't follow the same market rules as the other vendors, is an attempt to invest an enormous amount of money (not coming by the videogame industry) to corner the market and aquire control of it (I a similar way as Apple and Google control their mobile markets). Already today, small software vendors are forced to come to terms with Microsoft if they want to exist in the Xbox platform.
So advertising on one platform increases exposure to people who only have another platform, so more of them buy it on that platform due to word of mouth etc. not rocket science.
@CamPatUK Really? I have found that the colors and sound are less muted on the XBOX. Maybe it's a setting in PS5 that I need to adjust. Both systems are using high speed HDMI inputs and the cables that they came with.
@8bit4Life yeah, on XSX the screen goes entirely black and stops showing anything periodically. Some say they fixed it by disabling 120hz but that didn't do it for me. It even took 30 minutes just to install the BD software because it kept hanging for no reason.
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