Topic: Will Christmas be a tough one for PS4?

With x1x due out and switch in its stride will this Chrimbo be a tough one for the PS4?

I think it will.

I think if Sony sold their last PS4 today they'd be happy enough.

As we know, they have reached their core audience. Anything else they can get now is a bonus.

So tough, no, certainly not. Maybe they won't get the vast casual numbers they'd like... but it's not as if that group will be lapping up the Xbox 1 X and Switch, either.

Tough? In what way tough?

Could they feasibly end up coming 3rd in terms of consoles sold globally? Possibly but maybe unlikely. Whilst the XB1X is out and it seems that the Project Scorpio edition has sold out, the Standard edition as yet hasn't been put up for pre-orders but it may be similar to the Switch in that not everyone that wanted one will get one - until stock can catch up with demand. Also Sony may announce a bundle or drop the price too. The X may well end up overtaking the Pro in terms of sales BUT I think we are forgetting that the PS4 is still the more powerful HD console and selling very well. The combined PS4 and PS4 Pro sales could match, if not beat the Xbox One S and X combined sales on a monthly basis.

No. They forecast that they'd be down slightly on last year for the current fiscal period, but we know from Japanese and US data that they're actually up year-over-year and I'd put money on the trend being the same in Europe, too.

I expect Microsoft to have a big November in the States between the Xbox One X launch numbers and Black Friday sales of the Xbox One S, but the PS4 will be no slouch during that period, too. Also, it's worth remembering that there's a world outside of the US and the UK, and an extremely expensive new SKU from Microsoft is unlikely to reverse any trends in markets like Portugal where Sony leads the region by a ratio of 8:1 or above.

As for the Switch, it's clearly on a great trajectory but supply is going to be its biggest hindrance unless Nintendo can somehow increase shipments, which is possible I guess. Either way, I personally don't believe that the Switch is "stealing" sales from either the PS4 or Xbox One — they're kinda complementary propositions at this point.

And we still need to wait and see how aggressive Sony wants to be. If it's still desperate to increase its market share, it's probably got room to knock $50 off the price of both the PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro, which would be very aggressive. I don't expect it to happen, but you never know.

I wonder how many Switchs will even be available at that time? I would like to pick one up myself. I would probably already have one if I could find one.

Honestly Sony will be ok. Everyone who wants a PS4 already has one be it a Pro, Original or slim. The Xbox One X won't cause anyone who has a PS4 to switch to Xbox. Pretty much the only people who are going to get an Xbox One X have probably already made up their mind to do so a long time ago.

I am sure as with every holiday season there will be bundles and such but that's just normal.

Its a weird one but my kids are excited about the x1x, unsure how or why. Possibly targetted advertising via youtube and on their xbox1 but they both want one for xmas. A couple of people in work have mentioned it too. Seems a bit strange like theres some subliminal marketing ive missed were the ps4 is old and x1x is the next big thing.

@themcnoisy I think that's probably just a case of the circles you're in. Sounds like it's going to be a very expensive Christmas for you, though!

I actually think the x1x is going to sell really well out of the gate. That said once hype slows down I'm not sure how it will do in the long run.

@themcnoisy Every holiday season there is a mst have toy or something. Remember Tickle Me Elmo or Cabbage Patch Kids? That's all it is with the Xbox One X. Sony doesn't have to worry too much about sales like MS does. Remember MS is still paying for the Mattrick Blunder.

@Tasuki I know quite a few PS4 gamers who are buying the Xbox X and pre-ordered as soon as it went live. Quite a few of those opted not to upgrade to the Pro and are waiting for the X. They are not getting rid of the PS4 though but moving to the X mostly for multi-platform games and a few of the Exclusives they have missed and keeping the PS4 mostly for Exclusives. I am sure I have seen a few comments on this site too where people have said they were doing that too.

I don't think that you will see a big exodus over to Xbox at all but I also don't think everyone who wants a PS4 has one yet either. If Last gen is any indication, both Sony and MS sold over 80m - that's 160m. I am sure some of those may have bought 2 or more of the same console, I know I had 2 different PS3's and 3 different XB360's over the years. I have also had 2 PS4's and (soon) 3 XBX's too but we are around the 90-100m consoles sold. Both Sony and MS, with more powerful hardware and as more and more people upgrade to 4k TV's give their user base a reason to upgrade and buy a 'new' console. Sony could also drop the price, as @get2sammyb mentions. Looking ahead too, Sony have some 'big' games coming that could be 'console' sellers. If they wanted to give PS4 users an incentive to upgrade to a Pro for example, they could do a custom Pro with game (God of War, Spider-Man, Last of Us 2, Days Gone...) too. They could sell a 'Pro' to the 'majority' of PS4 owners over the next few years - that's 40m.

If the more powerful iterations are not of great interest, the base PS4 is probably the more attractive option. Not looking at the games themselves so much, but if you don't have, or not interested in a 4k TV, the XB1s's 4k HDR bluray player isn't an enticing proposition and the base PS4 is more designed to offer full HD gaming. Add in the big AAA exclusives that Sony will be releasing, and its clear it has the 'advantage' in the HD market.

Another point that @get2sammyb raised is that Sony is much stronger in certain markets. They may well lose in the US and UK market at being the No 1 selling Console over Christmas but by being so dominant in other markets, the Global figures could be very close. I can't see Xbox being 'big in Japan' for example.

The Xbox One X could, as I said, sell well - maybe better than the Pro but the XB1s probably won't beat the PS4 and as sales figures will combine the 2 iterations of each, the question will be if the X can sell enough more than the Pro to make up for the deficit in sales that the XB1s will have compared to the PS4.

November is more than likely going to beat Sony. A new console that people have been wanting for over a year now and all looking to buy at launch or soon after. We saw something similar last year, although gamers had far less notice with Sony announcing in September and the Pro arriving in November. When it did arrive though, Sony had a great month.

@BAMozzy Honestly I only read your first paragraph and after that yeah, so I will comment on the part I read.

I understand that, heck I myself have been thinking of getting an Xbox of late mainly for the exclusives and a few multiplayer games to play with friends who only have Xboxes. Of course no way am I going to get The Scorpio that's just over kill in my situation, but an Xbox One S or Xbox One that will suit my needs.

But as I said I don't think it will hurt Sony cause it's like you said there won't be like a mass exodus of PS4 players.

@Tasuki I don't know any PS4 gamer that wants to totally abandon the PS4 for the Xbox One (s or X). They are (as far as the ones I know and speak too) all looking to add the X to their gaming options - some aren't because they have high-end PC's. They all want to keep their PS4's because of Sony's line up of exclusives. They may be 'abandoning' the PS4 for 'multi-platform' games, the exclusives they missed and BC games too, but they are not trading in their PS4. Some of those have Pro's already and will still buy some games - like Destiny 2 because of friends on PS4 - but the 'X' offers enough to entice them - as well as the 4k HDR Bluray player to go with their 4k TV's. Most of the discussions I have had with people pondering whether to 'trade' their PS4's in, have all ended in agreement that trading in would be 'foolish' and they would regret it, rather buy the X as an additional gaming option so I doubt there will be a mass exodus - rather more people with both...

As I said, a few were holding off on the Pro until the X comes out. They wanted to see if it really did offer what MS promised last year and now they feel its worth buying.

I thought you were going to buy your friends Xbox One? With some trading up in November, if your friends XB1 is no longer an option, I expect the 2nd hand market will have quite a few. Black Friday is coming up soon after too - not sure if retailers discount used consoles but the XB1s isn't expensive compared to the price of the others on the market. It will be interesting to see if games like Sunse Overdrive, Tomb Raider etc that are getting enhancements - inc HDR will get HDR on the Slim and, in the case of Tomb Raider, the PS4 too...

@BAMozzy Unfortunately I had to pass on my friends Xbox One, as my car's alternator decided to die and I had to get that fixed so I could get to work. Black Friday isn't a bad idea though.

I don't think so. Sony just sold through a record number of PS4's for the month of June in NA, 4 years after release. Japan sales are also on track to be the best ever. If this also applies globally, which I think it does, they'll do just fine.

The hardcores have already bought in. Now it's about the casual market. The casuals care about price, where their friends game and the big multiplats. Given that the PS4 will be the cheapest system, has an install base of 60million+ and has all the major market rights bar Madden 18 & AC: Origins this holiday season they come out on top on each of those categories.

The Xbox hardcores will flock to the X as well as those looking for better performance, but it's not enough to attract the casual market. They'll have a few good months, like any new system before it falls off and the Xbox S starts selling more units again. Outside NA and UK the xbox brand is non existent, so this isn't going to lead to some massive change on a global scale.

As for the Switch, it's going to be the 'hot' item this holiday. It's up to Nintendo to keep the supply chains fed, which I doubt they will as they are competing with Apple for components. As others have mentioned the Switch is more of a complimentary secondary system. That's why I genuinely think the Switch is in competition with the Xbox One not with PS4 (apart from Japan). As the go to console this gen is PS4, where do I go for something new this holiday? The portability and exclusives on the Switch or the raw power with the XboxOneX?

Long story short, PS4 will be fine.

I don't think Sony will top out the charts in all regions this christmas BUT I think they will still sell a bottom load of consoles. I can see heavy heavy discounts on Slim, maybe even Pro plus PSVR, I think, will get a price drop at the year anniversary and a bit of a marketing push.

Being top of the charts is great, but what Sony cares about is sales figures and, at this stage, software sales. This is where a lot of the cash is coming from. They have an established eco-system, the brand is very strong and they have an incredible amount of exlusives and marketing deals with third parties.

I am more interested in the fight for Nintendo and Xbox. At this stage, most people who want consoles probably have at least one except for the extreme casuals or families with kids. So for second consoles, do you go XB1X or Switch? Switch brings something new to the table, XB1X brings power and design but runs existing games. Anecdotally, I only know a few people who are interested in an XB1X and those are all XB1 owners who fancy a refresh and didnt go for the S. Most of my colleagues at work are PC gamers and they just don't see the point of an XB at all (though most own either a PS4 or Switch for exclusives). For performance they have a PC and can get all XB exclusives. I think the XB1X will do well this year and into next but I think it is already preaching to the converted.

Not at all.

In terms of pure, raw sales, then they might come behind Switch and Xbox One, but that matters not one jot at this point. Remember the last few holiday periods when Xbox had insane Black Friday deals to try and win the day? And they did win some of them. And then everything went right back to normal. PS4 has won. The war is over. Coming on top for a month or two doesn't change the four years of being on top PS4 has had.

I don't suppose they'll be worried at all. But then, I don't even know how likely it is that Switch and Xbox One will do much this Christmas. Xbox One X is a nothing console - far too expensive for what it is, and still not addressing the major problem that Xbox has - a weak first party. It'll sell well when it launches because everything sells well when it launches, but once the hardcore early adopters drop off, I wonder how much appeal the console is going to have to the common folk. It plays the same games as the much cheaper consoles, but if you've got a 4K telly the games look a bit prettier. It's in an even worse position than PS4 Pro since it's $100 more expensive.

Switch is doing pretty well, but it's still relatively new, and given how sparse the line-up is for the immediate future, and how expensive it is, I'm fairly confident that the Switch hype train will derail sooner rather than later. It still doesn't have any of the biggest games, except for that pretendy FIFA, and the console doesn't have the obvious appeal of something like the Wii.

PS4 might not be new and exciting, but it's got the best mix of first and third party games, and it's cheaper than the competition.

Is Christmas relevant. Not so much no.

@Bad-MuthaAdebisi Hell yeah! Its the 1 of 2 whole days my work is closed every year. I love Santa!

And who doesnt love the song little donkey? Come on its a classic up there with the tetris theme tune and wonderwall by oasis.

A potential price drop and more third party PS4 bundles than I dare list will see the PS4 through the holidays. Let's not forget it has marketing partnerships with Destiny 2, FIFA 18, CoD WWII, Star Wars Battlefront...