Topic: Game Pass discussion

@Ralizah What you also have to consider is that Games tend to be on their for months at a time. Its not on Game Pass for just 1 month and that's it - 3 months seems to be a 'minimum' but Outriders (for example) is still on Game Pass and, if it were to leave soon, you get an extra '20%' off the 'current' price. If you buy DLC, you get discounts too. If you are worried that you won't finish Starfield for example, I don't think you'll have to worry too much about it leaving too soon.

Whilst Game Pass may give people 'free' access, its still available to 'buy' and according to MS, Game Pass subscribers spend 50 per cent more than non-subscribers. A game’s average engagement goes up eight times when added to Game Pass. And player experimentation within genres dramatically increases. Three years after release, Sea Of Thieves just passed 25 million players, and that continues to grow. In other words, those with Game Pass are buying 'more' content (and Software is where the money is) and spending a LOT more time in the ecosystem. If they are buying more in MS's ecosystem, its bringing more money in on top of the Subscriptions and, if they have 25m (likely more but some are on 'special' introductory deals or got 'cheaper' codes as well as some on the higher Tier too but 25m is conservative) with at least $10 a month coming in, that's $250m (quarter of a Billion) every month on top of Gold, on top of all the profit from Game Sales (much more on Digital software) and most big budget AAA games cost about $40-50m to develop (Horizon:Zero Dawn cost an estimated $45-50m to develop, ME:A cost over $40m).

Craig Duncan (RARE) remembers turning to Spencer and asking the big question: “If every single person plays Sea Of Thieves on Game Pass, and we don’t sell a single copy. Are you kind of cool with that?’”
Spencer was categorical.
“Absolutely.”

With Sea of Thieves, no-one would of expected over 25m players and, if it was only 'sold', not on Game Pass, it probably wouldn't of sold more than a couple of Million. With Game Pass, it reached many more people and drew them in. Friends, not on Game Pass get drawn in to buying to play with friends - whether that's buying the game or the subscription service - its still bringing more and more players into that game.

How many played Returnal? Ratchet & Clank? Deathloop? Certainly nowhere near 10m in its first week like Forza Horizon 5 had. A game makes the vast majority in its first few weeks of sales and some games could take months to recuperate costs with 3rd Party publishers because they are not retailers and platform holders. Ubisoft, EA etc have to give money to MS/Sony/Nintendo to release games on their platform, using their trademarks/branding and of course those platforms are also retailers for Digital versions so get retailer profits too. That makes their own profit margin much smaller and most devs (unless independent) are Salaried with perhaps a 'bonus' if their games do well. Apart from 'hiring' external people to help (Actors to play Characters, mo-cap animations etc, mo-cap or recording studio's, musicians to write and perform the score, QA testers etc), the dev studio will have a relatively fixed monthly cost to run (wages, rates (electricity, rent, insurance etc), maintenance etc) and every 'extra' month is an extra month on the cost. When you consider Horizon:Zero Dawn cost about $50m over several years, then it may of cost an average $1m a month to keep that Studio open.

Lets assume for a minute you have 20 big studio's all working on big budget AAA games, all requiring their monthly pay cheque and bills paid - so an average of say $20m a month to develop games. Some games may be 3yrs away ($36m on keeping that Studio Open) another $14m spread out over that time on Actors, Musicians, Mo-capping and QA testing so a '$50m' game but the point is, its not a '$50m' game that was paid up front before they started, its spread out over the time. If for example, GP is bringing in $250m a month, that's not '5 Games' $50m games they can make - its money to keep those studio's open for a few months at least, pay out for the 'extras' needed, pay all the back room MS staff who are running Game Pass, invest in 3rd Party games (ID@Xbox, Xbox Publishing and getting other Publishers to put their games in Game Pass)...

I wouldn't worry about the duration of games on the Service as you can still buy them when they leave and in a LOT of cases, they are much, much cheaper than at Launch by then too. If Outriders left this month, I could buy the game for around £10 (or less if I check ebay) if I wished to keep playing or buy it digitally with an extra 20% off the current digital price - no need to reinstall, no loss of progression etc. Another way to think of it is 'try before you buy', you can try all these games, play as much of them as you want/can, and then decide if you want to buy at whatever the current price is - if its 'more' than you want to spend, keep playing via Game Pass, all the while, the prices keep dropping until it either reaches a price point you are willing to spend, it leaves (or been there long enough) and you get an extra 20% off or you 'finish' playing (by Finish, I mean when you no longer wish to play anymore, not necessarily when you have beaten everything and got all achievements) and no longer want/need to buy it anyway.

A LOT of games these days also have added content and I don't mind paying for 'DLC' so much when its a bit cheaper and I haven't just spent £50+ on a game. Maybe that's why I end up spending 50% more overall than non-Game Pass subs. Certainly playing more - no way could I of bought FH5, Halo, B4B etc as well as FC6, GotG etc I wouldn't have played games like Marvel Avengers, the Great Escape etc either so for me, its really transformed my Gaming experience.

Another aspect that I love is Streaming - not often talked about and when it is, its only the Mobile experience. Now its on Console too which is incredible - especially with 'small' capacity Storage and slow downloads/transfers. I wouldn't have bothered with the Great Escape or Marvels Avengers for example because my Series X internal storage is full. It takes too long to move a 'Forza' (for example) to external HDD to make room on the SSD, then a 'long' download and install time before you can play. The Artful Escape isn't a 'long' game so to go through all that for a few hours playing, and then after 'uninstall' and wait hours to move that initial game back to SSD to play it. Streaming meant I could play the entire game immediately (well after a very short 'load' up) and assess whether its 'worth' making room to get the 'full' visual impact. I wouldn't play FH5 via streaming on my Series X as that is a 'Visual' showcase and therefore benefits from playing Locally. The Great Escape, whilst a 'pretty' game, its artstyle isn't as impacted so much. Of course, its not the 'same' but its often 'better' than playing Locally on an XB1S - (smoother, and in some cases, much higher frame rates). I wonder if FH5 plays better on XB1s via Streaming (maybe 60fps as its Series X version) vs 30fps local version?

Anyway, I wouldn't want to be without Game Pass Ultimate and I have certainly got 'excellent' Value from it. GPU in the UK costs £11 a month (£132 a year) and comes with Gold (and the GwG although pretty lacklustre games imo but still 48 extra games a year), EA Play, Streaming and cross-platform (PC Game Pass & Xbox Game Pass for Mobiles) access. How much would it have cost me to play FH5, Halo, Back4Blood, Outriders, Great Escape, Outriders, Flight Simulator, the Medium etc as well as games like Star Wars: Squadrons or Fallen Jedi via EA Play - just this year...

Each to their own and everyone has to decide what's the 'best' option for them and their current situation. It maybe that some will prefer to spend their money on actual games rather than have a monthly fee go out. Want to know that they can play that game 5yrs later if they so desire. Some could even stop buying games altogether and only play the games on Game Pass so £11 a month is all their 'gaming' costs them - if they also want to play online, get EA Play games and play on any compatible device. In my case, I am buying less games a year (maybe because its been a 'quiet' year and most games I wanted to play were on Game Pass) but playing a LOT more games, many of which I would never of played.

@themightyant I should have gone back and read what I wrote as I did come across as a little grumpy, which wasn't my intention. There's definitely good stuff on GP and off that graphic there's one game that I did play on a subs service and that was Control. It was on PS Now a while ago and I was unsure about buying it when it first released as I'd read some reports of the performance being awful. Trying it on PS Now was perfect because it gave me the chance to see that even though it did have issues it wasn't unplayable. Turned out it was an awesome game and I'm really glad that I had the chance to try it.

I totally agree with the problem of having a load of different services. Currently with the TV offerings I tend to subscribe for a month or two when there's enough that I want to watch. Disney+ is the best example of that as there's a load of stuff on there for the kids but there wasn't a great deal that I was interested in. Waiting for something like the Mandalorian to be on their in it's entirety works for me as we will then just binge watch it, the kids will watch a few things they are interested in and then when it lapses we will leave it until there's enough new stuff on there again. You could easily bounce between a few different services that way and that would probably work for GP at the moment as well where the big exclusives are few and far between. I'm sure that will accelerate though as it seems that MS have positioned themselves to be able to throw something out every few months or so.

Subscriptions in general are a double edged sword and I think we've yet to see the true impact of them becoming more widespread. Who knows perhaps one day we will just subscribe to life!

@render Haha. Didn't take it that way. All good.

Agreed on all points.

@BAMozzy Don't have time to reply to the whole thing right now but saw one thing worth mentioning.

The "Game Pass subscribers spend 50 per cent more than non-subscribers." is classic misdirection it's a non-stat if you think about it. Of course the people who are engaged most with Xbox and are likely to spend more on the platform. It's a mismatched comparison and means nothing. You have to remember the vast majority of gamers buy Fifa/Madden, play Fortnite and COD: Warzone. Read 'How to lie with Statistics'.

It would actually be useful and interesting if they revealed how much more/less game pass subscribers spent on average compared to before they were subscribers. These are metrics they will have of course, but will guard very closely. I suspect it is less additional spend per user but that is offset a little by semi-reliable income, (not everyone subs every month) and more importantly increasing their market share and bringing more spend to Xbox across the board which is their end goal. It doesn't happen in isolation.

Plus your napkin maths has an awful lot of assumptions and missing bits.

But on the whole skim reading, sorry not enough time today, you make lots of fair points.

I agree for many, not all, it is a brilliant offering. Doesn't' mean there aren't potentially valid concerns with how it may change the industry.

gamepass is superior

@render I think there is quite a big difference between say Netflix and Game Pass content. Its quite easy to subscribe to Netflix for a single month and 'binge watch' all the series/films you want and then cancel for a few months until there is enough content to justify another month subscription.

I don't 'binge' play games - I like to enjoy them at my own pace and not feel pressured into finishing the story because my Subscription is ending. Also some games are more 'social' and play as and when friends want to play. If you all have Game Pass, you all have a lot of the same Library so easy to find a game to play - makes it easy for my Son and I to play together as we both have a lot of the same games.

There is no way I could play a big open world RPG (like Skyrim, Starfield, Mass Effect etc) in a month or less and as I have GPU (which includes Gold and EA Play), there is always something 'new' every month - not just the big First Party games...

@themightyant I know stats can be made to prove anything you want - I have an A-Level in Mathematics. A lot of the 'figures' are more illustrative of the principals and was a simplified vision that was not meant to be taken as the 'complete' picture. I know there are a LOT of closely kept secrets and its far more complicated than that.

Its going to be 'similar' though for all big Publishers with numerous Dev teams under them. They are mostly salaried and so have a 'monthly' cost to keep that Studio open and developing games. There will be times when those studio's need to outsource (Voice actors, musicians etc) on top of that cost, but its not like Sony, MS etc give their Studio's $40m up front to go away and deliver a game in 3yrs. The running costs are covered by the income those Publishers get from games already out, royalties, subscriptions etc and if you are bringing in quarter of a billion every month with just Game Pass, that's a lot of the running costs of Studio's paid for that month so that by the time the Game releases, its already been paid for so any extra revenue through sales is essentially Profit because the Subscription model is paying all those staff salaries and studio's open.

To keep it simple, I did try an illustrate that. If you have 20 different Studio's all staffed there is a monthly cost (salaries and rates) to keep them open and employed. If you are bringing in more than enough to keep them 'open' and delivering great games from a 'subscription' service, it doesn't matter if they don't sell a single copy because the Subscribers have already paid paid for it - any additional sales are profit and not necessarily 'needed' to fund the next game as the Subscribers are still paying. Of course the figures I mentioned may be well off but served to illustrate that. No way is MS paying more than $250m to keep 25 studio's open, keep all employees paid etc. I don't know how much an average Dev earns a month but if the average a month is 4k per person and each Studio has 500 staff, 25 studio's would cost MS $50m a month and even if the 'rates' (electricity, rent etc) are 1m per studio a month, that's $75m a month outgoings that has to be found regardless of Game Pass. That would need to come from Game Sales, other Subscriptions, related Sales (peripherals) etc but if you are getting $250m a month from 'just' Game Pass, you are covering the cost to make those games before they even come to market.

Its the same for Netflix/Amazon etc - the cost to make those films/shows is covered by the Subscription base so don't 'need' to sell box office tickets, Blurays and licencing deals to broadcasters to recuperate costs and its more about the consumer numbers, how many 'new' subs and viewers, how many watch the entire series vs just the first episode or two rather than how well it 'sells'.

If you take away the commercial viability of a gaming project because its not dependent on whether or not it will sell enough to make it profitable, you have more creative freedom to experiment. Companies like EA and Activision rely on game sales so will not 'greenlight' projects they think could be a 'risk' or not as commercial as another 'remake', 'sequel' or jumping in to the 'current trend'. If Game Pass is bringing in more than enough that MS could easily still be 'profitable' without selling a single first party game because of Game Pass, then they can allow devs to take more creative risks, make the games they feel most passionate about, not try and push them to be more 'commercial'.

I must admit, the one concern I have is the long term game preservation and of course the industry as a whole - like I said, it could be used to screw some dev teams out of bonuses if their publisher is unscrupulous - like telling them their bonuses are directly related to first month Sales and then negotiate with MS to be on Game Pass so get all the money from that but then refuse to pay bonuses because actual Sales were 'lower'.

Anyway, as with everything, its great that we all have choices. I really do think Game Pass is the 'best' service and value in Gaming right now but I wouldn't want that (or similar) as the 'only' choice. Yes it benefits me a lot but I also like to own games Physically so it doesn't stop me buying GP games but does allow me to play at launch and decide 'if/when' to buy. It has opened up a LOT more experiences etc and I am happy this service exists - but I am not sure I want a 'subscription' only model for the future. I can see a time though when External Hardware is essential as the amount of Data would be far too large for physical media to hold so rely on the Cloud but I still wouldn't want a 'subscription' service to be the only option...

I'm a PC gamer only and I have zero interest in GP. I'd rather wait for a sale and own a game than pay $15 a month that gets me nothing in the end. Most of what comes to it is indie stuff I have zero interest in or older AAA games I've already played. I also don't want the industry dictated by the worst conglomerate on the planet.

Gamepass is like Netflix. You keep it while you are on special or reduced rates. Play or demo everthing you are interested in. Then it gets canceled until ESVI and Starfield come out. Buy the games you like on sale. I can't see MS being successful with the amount of money they are investing in this. I'm using the 1$ three mos trial on PC right now. But there is no reason for me to keep it past that three mos. Cool to be able to demo a bunch of games that I will buy on sale on Playstation. 7 BILLION for Zenimax. Insane! For all you that aren't quite sure what a billion is, that is 1000 million.. Yeh I'm definetly going to want Starfield and ESVI once they iron the bugs out and Arkane does make some awesome games once they fix the bugs. Might have to set the PC up for couch play when those go on sale.