Grumblevolcano

@Perturbator I'd guess the overwhelming negative reaction to the Suicide Squad focused State of Play (mostly because of Suicide Squad being your typical live service game) will have also been a factor as Rocksteady's path is similar.

Rocksteady went from the extremely well received single player Batman Arkham trilogy to a live service game. A lot of Sony's studios made extremely well received single player games.

I think it's definitely believable that there's a State of Play as:

• Spider-Man 2 is approaching (that would most likely be the event closer)
• There's games like Stellar Blade and Helldivers 2 which have vague 2023 release windows
• Playstation Portal needs a release date and there's still the whole detachable disc drive PS5 thing unaccounted for
• Rift Apart came out on PC in July so Sony will probably announce the next PS Studios PC game (my guess would be GT7 because of the movie)

But I don't think the event would give a reason for the PS+ price hikes, let alone a justifiable reason.

The price hike makes it the worst PS+ month and I wouldn't be surprised if in 2 weeks Microsoft follows up this by getting rid of the 3:2 conversation that's currently present for upgrading Gold to Ultimate when Gold is replaced by Game Pass Core.

https://blog.playstation.com/2023/08/30/playstation-plus-monthly-games-for-september-saints-row-black-desert-traveler-edition-generation-zero/

The blog post also says that subscription prices for all 3 tiers are increasing starting September 6th.

@Cherip-the-Ripper Armored Core 6 uses smart delivery so there's only 1 physical version for Xbox containing both versions (though with smart delivery games the Series X|S version is usually a full internet download for physical releases).

SIE further gives the impression they have only 3 priorities:

• Live service games
• Hardware
• TV/movies of PS IP

That nothing else matters to them.

@Anthony_Daniels I was on about how you have all these franchises that are getting movies or TV shows like Twisted Metal, Jak & Daxter, Gravity Rush, MediEvil which has been absent from the games side of things.

Microsoft are also guilty of this is as they're doing a Gears of War movie and that franchise is missing too.

Would be nice if Sony announced games. The Mario movie was a gigantic success but Nintendo did also announce Mario franchise games (e.g. Super Mario Bros Wonder, Super Mario RPG remake, Luigi's Mansion 2 remaster, untitled Peach game).

It was rather meh though there was some really cool stuff at times like the Sonic news. I do agree with @Americansamurai1 that Sony's complete absence is likely a sign of a Sony event in the near future.

So that explains why Ubisoft games are starting to be removed from PS+ Extra/Premium.

Sonic Superstars for sure. The more the show focuses on multiplatform games, the more likely there's a Sony event in the near future.

@Beerheadgamer82 Sony's probably working on the Activision acquisition timeline like they announced the May showcase 2 days after the EU approved the acquisition. So the CMA will probably be the signal of when the next State of Play or PS Showcase is announced.

Twisted Metal and now Jak & Daxter? What is up with Sony creating movies/TV shows for dormant game franchises but still leaving it dormant on the games front.

@somnambulance The PS showcase had FFXVI though, there was the awkward dilemma about how do you promote FFVII Rebirth without overshadowing FFXVI. That issue doesn't exist anymore given FFXVI has been out for nearly 2 months now.

I don't think we'll get another PS showcase but a State of Play feels likely. Cover a bunch of 3rd party stuff and then end with a big Spider-Man 2 trailer like how they approached last September (GoW Ragnarok was the closer back then).

@somnambulance I think we'll see Rebirth get its release date in a Sony event, ever since Sony debuted the State of Play format there's always been a State of Play or PS Showcase in August/September. State of Play feels more likely this time given the way they named the May showcase.

I think Sony may announce the detachable disc drive PS5 and/or release date for the Q remote play handheld here. They used Opening Night Live last year to reveal the Dualsense Edge.

But I only think this would be the case if there's no PS event in the near future. State of Play for late August as an alternative to announcing at Opening Night Live feels like a possibility.

@Tharsman Wouldn't Microsoft benefit the most from the PS marketing deal being scrapped? If Starfield is any good then the combination of Starfield + CoD day 1 on Game Pass would cause Game Pass subscription numbers to skyrocket.

By not getting rid of the marketing deal, it gives the impression of damage control in case something delays the acquisition's completion. I'd guess Activision losing the extra 10% from the CoD marketing deal while at the same time the acquisition by Microsoft being held up would anger shareholders.

@Tharsman I think we're going to find out that the CMA aren't satisfied with Microsoft's new concessions.

@rjejr I think the situation is all about pushing more people to digital only. Either people see the price of the disc drive and go "too expensive, I'll go digital" or the disc drive is limited stock in which people get digital in the hope that they can get the disc drive in the future.

It honestly feels like everyone's trying to kill off physical games except Nintendo (even then the gap between digital and physical release date for Prime Remastered and Pikmin 1+2 could be seen as an attempt to push more people to digital).

@rjejr I'd guess they'll do a PS event (probably State of Play) in late August or give the announcement to Geoff on August 22nd. Either way, I don't see Sony commenting on this until the current discounts are over (US $50 off seems to be until August 19th).

@KundaliniRising333 Ultimately the upcoming lineup decides whether it makes sense to show up and the May showcase made it rather clear that Sony's upcoming lineup is on the lighter side.

Not to say it couldn't have worked, Nintendo in 2016 showed up to multiple conventions with just BotW. But irrelevant of whether Sony showed up to Gamescom, their focus would've been on Spider-Man 2.

Helldivers 2/Concord/Fairgame$/Marathon is live service so it'll go the online beta route and who knows if 3rd party single player games like Stellar Blade/Rise of the Ronin would be ready for a playable demo on the show floor.

Sony's error was going all in on live service as while games like Fortnite are still popular, live service is a rather hated game genre on a more widespread level nowadays.

The delayed 1st party games brought up in the earnings report were likely live service given Sony's announced last year targets for 3 live service games in the fiscal year ending March 2023 (2 happened) and 12 live service games by 2025.

@trev666 Probably to do with the new EU regulations coming into effect at the end of 2024 regarding USB-C.

TLoU came out in June 2013 (5 months before PS4), TLoU 2 came out in June 2020 (5 months before PS5) so I'd guess TLoU 3 releases in June 2028 (5 months before PS6).

I think Switch is a big factor here. The Switch released in March 2017 which was close to the release of both the PS4 Pro (November 2016) and the XB1X (November 2017). You could buy a mid gen revision to give you some extra power or you could buy a Switch that's cheaper, is a hybrid (both TV and handheld options) and gives you a load of games you can't play on PS4/XB1. Like there's a 1st party Switch game released almost every month.

So looking at the PS5 Pro situation, the Switch's successor may release close to that and then the same question would be asked.

The 79% drop is compared to April - June 2022, right? That timeframe would have gotten a big boost because Endwalker was still a rather new expansion (it launched in December 2021).

I remember Push Square reporting on at some point there was a quarter or fiscal year that was very strong solely because of FFXIV.

Honestly between this and the whole PS5 discounts situation (ends August 10th), it feels like Sony will have an event in mid August.

@Boucho11 If they want to bring this to the Switch's successor and the console is around the same power as PS4/XB1 they may decide they may as well port it to PS4 and XB1 as well.

Maybe a result of the Switch's successor given it would probably be around base PS4 power? Switch has been a gigantic success so lots of 3rd parties may want to support the successor early on.

Thinking about it, the actual best outcome is if the acquisition drags on indefinitely rather than a definitive answer because it puts future acquisitions at a standstill. You see all this speculation and rumours about Microsoft acquiring SEGA and Sony acquiring Square Enix but that kind of stuff won't happen if the Activision acquisition is still in limbo.

The Activision acquisition deadline extension showcases that Microsoft and Activision have no interest in giving up so if regulators kept the acquisition in limbo indefinitely then problem solved.

@Cashews It's questionable whether the rumoured replacement model is actually better. On the one hand, you can replace the disc drive if the one that comes with the console fails but on the other hand Sony can artificially limit stock of the disc drive such that you're forced into a digital only ecosystem.

Your argument is stronger for the rumoured 2024 PS5 Pro though.

@somnambulance It could be FTP given that's a common tactic for live service.

@HonestHick It's a 7th gen game so I'd imagine it would also come to Switch which is a big get.

While I understand that PS5 Pro will help improve performance like FFXVI having a more stable framerate, comparing Switch's lineup to both PS5 and Series X|S (it's also the case when comparing Switch to PS4 and XB1) makes me very uneasy about the continued quest for more powerful hardware.

@rjejr I think the timing is because this Fall/Holiday season is extremely packed. By releasing this PS5 bundle on September 1st rather than October, it's helping keep attention on Playstation.

@Beerheadgamer82 That's currently scheduled for this year, not next year. I'd imagine it'll reappear in the next State of Play.

@Beerheadgamer82 Concord (the live service game) is scheduled for 2024 and MLB The Show is annual so there'll be a new game around March/April 2024. Apart from those, we know nothing about 1st party PS in 2024.

My guess would be like 2023 there being a strong 3rd party lineup, Insomniac closes the year with a big 1st party single player game but the rest of the 1st party lineup being live service.

Stuff like this makes me wonder what direction gaming would've taken if instead of deciding to release PS5/Series X|S, Sony/Microsoft instead chose to keep PS4/XB1 permanently as the most powerful hardware.

@rjejr Disagree, having the detachable disc drive in the PS5 box as an option would still mean the manufacturing process is identical between having it and not having it rather than the current setup where they're 2 different consoles. The disc drive would be like how sometimes you get consoles that have games in the box.

Meanwhile the reason Sony would purposely only have the disc drive as a separate accessory would be to artificially limit stock resulting in consumers being forced into Sony's $70 digital games ecosystem (in contrast to being able to get a physical game cheaper).

I could see either outcome happening but this news article does make the latter seem a lot more likely.

This gives me the impression that the rumoured detachable disc drive PS5 has the disc drive be only available as a separate purchase rather than there actually being a PS5 console box with the disc drive included.

Would be nice if SEGA worked with Nintendo to bring back F-Zero. Start off with a F-Zero GX remaster or remake (SEGA developed that game) and then follow up with a new game.

Sadly don't see it happening though as Mario Kart's success seems to be the reason the franchise went on hiatus.

@rjejr One big factor that hasn't been brought up by others is that there's a big contradiction present in Microsoft's strategy which says a lot about the future. They say they intend to bring back dormant IP like Guitar Hero and Skylanders but at the same time say they're not going to sabotage CoD. Those are contradicting statements given CoD is the reason other Activision IP is dormant in the first place.

Either Microsoft lied about reviving dormant IP which would harm the value of Game Pass or we're going to see that for example 10 years of CoD only means like 3 games maximum which would be seen as malicious intent to try and kill off Playstation.

I wonder if this is a legal thing. I remember that Activision got sued in the Wii U era over false marketing (CoD Wii U boxes mentioned DLC which didn't happen), this forced them to release a DLC map for Black Ops 2 (Nuketown 2025) and Ghosts (Free Fall) on Wii U.

Sony used "Only on Playstation" a lot with PS4 boxes which could be considered false marketing for games that got PC ports. So it may be that Sony does PS5 versions for all the PS4 games that get PC ports.

@Friendly That would be the best option (approaching things more like Nintendo) but Nintendo has the big advantage of underpowered hardware. Switch is like a hybrid PS3/360 and a lot of strategies are similar to that era.

I do fear that when Nintendo hardware ends up being PS4/XB1 power, they will adopt the combo of AAA single player epics + live service games with microtransactions funding the single player games rather than the approach Nintendo are currently using for Switch.

The main things which cause this concern for me are the recent interviews about Zelda's future, Splatoon 3's catalog is pretty much a free battle pass, Nintendo Systems (the Nintendo/DeNA thing which was formed in April 2023) and that Nintendo cares enough about CoD that they signed up for the 10 year deal Microsoft offered extremely quickly.

If the Switch's successor comes out and Nintendo doesn't fall into the microtransactions trap that Sony and Microsoft did then it would showcase the current Nintendo strategy would be an option that Sony could use if they wanted to.

I hate it but I get that Sony don't really have a choice. The FTC vs. Microsoft trial showcased to us that those AAA single player epics that PS fans love are only sustainable because Sony were getting lots of microtransaction money from 3rd party multiplatform live service games like CoD, Fortnite, FIFA, GTA Online, etc.

With some of these being either gone or reduced in some way for example FIFA is dead and who knows whether EA Sports FC does well meanwhile Microsoft acquiring Activision means people will choose to play CoD on Game Pass instead of PS, this means the single player epics are less likely to be sustainable.

But the chances of live service success is low as shown by the gigantic live service graveyard formed recently so this will likely dig an even bigger hole for Sony.

So in short, Microsoft are forcing Sony to go down this route.

@Martsmall Double Fine developed both of those games and they were acquired by Microsoft in 2019.

@Martsmall There are actually 2 Xbox Game Studios games that are Game Pass exclusive (as in you can't buy the games). Iron Brigade and The Cave, they got delisted from digital stores years ago and then reappeared this year as Game Pass exclusive.

I think it's real because of that Nvidia thing Push Square reported on back in 2021. That list has been so accurate that it even got Rift Apart correct.

I'd guess the 2nd one is some sort of Switch port, maybe GTAV.

@get2sammyb Sony will probably do what they did last year, that there's also a 3rd party focused State of Play just before TGS that ends with a Spider-Man 2 trailer.

So it looks like TLoU Part 1 was so successful that other publishers are looking in to remaking late 7th gen games that were remastered for 8th gen.