Grumblevolcano

@trev666 Probably to do with the new EU regulations coming into effect at the end of 2024 regarding USB-C.

TLoU came out in June 2013 (5 months before PS4), TLoU 2 came out in June 2020 (5 months before PS5) so I'd guess TLoU 3 releases in June 2028 (5 months before PS6).

I think Switch is a big factor here. The Switch released in March 2017 which was close to the release of both the PS4 Pro (November 2016) and the XB1X (November 2017). You could buy a mid gen revision to give you some extra power or you could buy a Switch that's cheaper, is a hybrid (both TV and handheld options) and gives you a load of games you can't play on PS4/XB1. Like there's a 1st party Switch game released almost every month.

So looking at the PS5 Pro situation, the Switch's successor may release close to that and then the same question would be asked.

The 79% drop is compared to April - June 2022, right? That timeframe would have gotten a big boost because Endwalker was still a rather new expansion (it launched in December 2021).

I remember Push Square reporting on at some point there was a quarter or fiscal year that was very strong solely because of FFXIV.

Honestly between this and the whole PS5 discounts situation (ends August 10th), it feels like Sony will have an event in mid August.

@Boucho11 If they want to bring this to the Switch's successor and the console is around the same power as PS4/XB1 they may decide they may as well port it to PS4 and XB1 as well.

Maybe a result of the Switch's successor given it would probably be around base PS4 power? Switch has been a gigantic success so lots of 3rd parties may want to support the successor early on.

Thinking about it, the actual best outcome is if the acquisition drags on indefinitely rather than a definitive answer because it puts future acquisitions at a standstill. You see all this speculation and rumours about Microsoft acquiring SEGA and Sony acquiring Square Enix but that kind of stuff won't happen if the Activision acquisition is still in limbo.

The Activision acquisition deadline extension showcases that Microsoft and Activision have no interest in giving up so if regulators kept the acquisition in limbo indefinitely then problem solved.

@Cashews It's questionable whether the rumoured replacement model is actually better. On the one hand, you can replace the disc drive if the one that comes with the console fails but on the other hand Sony can artificially limit stock of the disc drive such that you're forced into a digital only ecosystem.

Your argument is stronger for the rumoured 2024 PS5 Pro though.

@somnambulance It could be FTP given that's a common tactic for live service.

@HonestHick It's a 7th gen game so I'd imagine it would also come to Switch which is a big get.

While I understand that PS5 Pro will help improve performance like FFXVI having a more stable framerate, comparing Switch's lineup to both PS5 and Series X|S (it's also the case when comparing Switch to PS4 and XB1) makes me very uneasy about the continued quest for more powerful hardware.

@rjejr I think the timing is because this Fall/Holiday season is extremely packed. By releasing this PS5 bundle on September 1st rather than October, it's helping keep attention on Playstation.

@Beerheadgamer82 That's currently scheduled for this year, not next year. I'd imagine it'll reappear in the next State of Play.

@Beerheadgamer82 Concord (the live service game) is scheduled for 2024 and MLB The Show is annual so there'll be a new game around March/April 2024. Apart from those, we know nothing about 1st party PS in 2024.

My guess would be like 2023 there being a strong 3rd party lineup, Insomniac closes the year with a big 1st party single player game but the rest of the 1st party lineup being live service.

Stuff like this makes me wonder what direction gaming would've taken if instead of deciding to release PS5/Series X|S, Sony/Microsoft instead chose to keep PS4/XB1 permanently as the most powerful hardware.

@rjejr Disagree, having the detachable disc drive in the PS5 box as an option would still mean the manufacturing process is identical between having it and not having it rather than the current setup where they're 2 different consoles. The disc drive would be like how sometimes you get consoles that have games in the box.

Meanwhile the reason Sony would purposely only have the disc drive as a separate accessory would be to artificially limit stock resulting in consumers being forced into Sony's $70 digital games ecosystem (in contrast to being able to get a physical game cheaper).

I could see either outcome happening but this news article does make the latter seem a lot more likely.

This gives me the impression that the rumoured detachable disc drive PS5 has the disc drive be only available as a separate purchase rather than there actually being a PS5 console box with the disc drive included.

Would be nice if SEGA worked with Nintendo to bring back F-Zero. Start off with a F-Zero GX remaster or remake (SEGA developed that game) and then follow up with a new game.

Sadly don't see it happening though as Mario Kart's success seems to be the reason the franchise went on hiatus.

@rjejr One big factor that hasn't been brought up by others is that there's a big contradiction present in Microsoft's strategy which says a lot about the future. They say they intend to bring back dormant IP like Guitar Hero and Skylanders but at the same time say they're not going to sabotage CoD. Those are contradicting statements given CoD is the reason other Activision IP is dormant in the first place.

Either Microsoft lied about reviving dormant IP which would harm the value of Game Pass or we're going to see that for example 10 years of CoD only means like 3 games maximum which would be seen as malicious intent to try and kill off Playstation.

I wonder if this is a legal thing. I remember that Activision got sued in the Wii U era over false marketing (CoD Wii U boxes mentioned DLC which didn't happen), this forced them to release a DLC map for Black Ops 2 (Nuketown 2025) and Ghosts (Free Fall) on Wii U.

Sony used "Only on Playstation" a lot with PS4 boxes which could be considered false marketing for games that got PC ports. So it may be that Sony does PS5 versions for all the PS4 games that get PC ports.

@Friendly That would be the best option (approaching things more like Nintendo) but Nintendo has the big advantage of underpowered hardware. Switch is like a hybrid PS3/360 and a lot of strategies are similar to that era.

I do fear that when Nintendo hardware ends up being PS4/XB1 power, they will adopt the combo of AAA single player epics + live service games with microtransactions funding the single player games rather than the approach Nintendo are currently using for Switch.

The main things which cause this concern for me are the recent interviews about Zelda's future, Splatoon 3's catalog is pretty much a free battle pass, Nintendo Systems (the Nintendo/DeNA thing which was formed in April 2023) and that Nintendo cares enough about CoD that they signed up for the 10 year deal Microsoft offered extremely quickly.

If the Switch's successor comes out and Nintendo doesn't fall into the microtransactions trap that Sony and Microsoft did then it would showcase the current Nintendo strategy would be an option that Sony could use if they wanted to.

I hate it but I get that Sony don't really have a choice. The FTC vs. Microsoft trial showcased to us that those AAA single player epics that PS fans love are only sustainable because Sony were getting lots of microtransaction money from 3rd party multiplatform live service games like CoD, Fortnite, FIFA, GTA Online, etc.

With some of these being either gone or reduced in some way for example FIFA is dead and who knows whether EA Sports FC does well meanwhile Microsoft acquiring Activision means people will choose to play CoD on Game Pass instead of PS, this means the single player epics are less likely to be sustainable.

But the chances of live service success is low as shown by the gigantic live service graveyard formed recently so this will likely dig an even bigger hole for Sony.

So in short, Microsoft are forcing Sony to go down this route.

@Martsmall Double Fine developed both of those games and they were acquired by Microsoft in 2019.

@Martsmall There are actually 2 Xbox Game Studios games that are Game Pass exclusive (as in you can't buy the games). Iron Brigade and The Cave, they got delisted from digital stores years ago and then reappeared this year as Game Pass exclusive.

I think it's real because of that Nvidia thing Push Square reported on back in 2021. That list has been so accurate that it even got Rift Apart correct.

I'd guess the 2nd one is some sort of Switch port, maybe GTAV.

@get2sammyb Sony will probably do what they did last year, that there's also a 3rd party focused State of Play just before TGS that ends with a Spider-Man 2 trailer.

So it looks like TLoU Part 1 was so successful that other publishers are looking in to remaking late 7th gen games that were remastered for 8th gen.

@NomNom @LightningLeader I've just seen some sites like IGN reporting that Phil Spencer decided in November 2021 that all future Bethesda games are going to be Xbox exclusive.

@Tharsman It could be about the multiplatform goal.

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2021/05/sega_wants_persona_dev_atlus_to_do_simultaneous_worldwide_launches

It almost sounds like the situation was: SEGA wanted Atlus games to be multiplatform, Nintendo wanted SMT to remain Nintendo exclusive, Sony wanted Persona to remain PS exclusive and then Microsoft came along with a load of money saying "you can develop on whatever platforms you want as long as it's day 1 on Game Pass."

But if that was the case Persona 3 Reload and Metaphor: ReFantazio would've be coming to Switch but they're not which suggests Microsoft created Nintendo exclusion deals for those 2 games.

So it looks more like SEGA are being acquired but they can't announce it yet because of Activision.

@NEStalgia The quote was:

“We are not going to go down the road of putting new release titles into a subscription model. These games cost many millions of dollars, well over $100 million, to develop. We just don't see that as sustainable.”

https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2020/11/sony_on_ps5s_response_to_game_pass_there_is_news_to_come_but_not_today

The actual quote definitely fits what we see.

Seems this is very much the warning that Shawn Layden was talking about regarding AAA becoming unsustainable back in 2021.

@themightyant It feels like the only future outcomes are the extremes, that either:

1. Microsoft ends up being allowed to acquire everything using their "last place" excuse, kicking Sony and Nintendo out of gaming in the process to form the future where the only way to play games is via the cloud using a Game Pass subscription.

2. Microsoft gets blocked acquiring stuff resulting in Microsoft eventually giving up on the Xbox brand because it's not profitable. Cloud gaming is dead meanwhile Sony and Nintendo happily coexist in their traditional ways (consoles that play games natively) because hybrid gaming will always be a case of compromising power to enable portability of which Sony values power a lot more.

Out of those 2 options, option 2 is a lot more positive for gaming. Option 1 would be absolutely terrible for gaming.

Speaking of Starfield, the official Bethesda support twitter account revealed that the physical version of the game is just a code in a box.

@SplooshDmg That was my point with the thing holding up Nintendo getting it in the Xbox exclusion outcome being that the Switch isn't powerful enough to natively run it. The whole Kingdom Hearts situation showcased very clearly that Switch owners hate cloud gaming so creating a cloud version of FFVII Remake for Switch would just be a waste of resources.

@SplooshDmg There is only 1 way to truly find out if FFVII Remake was blocked from Xbox specifically. Namely, keep an eye out on the launch window lineup for the next Nintendo console whenever that happens. If FFVII Remake comes to that but still not Xbox, then Phil Spencer told the truth. If however it doesn't come to the next Nintendo console, then Phil Spencer lied.

Isn't this a contradiction? He said a while back that Elder Scrolls 6 would be PC/Xbox exclusive.

https://www.purexbox.com/news/2021/11/phil-spencer-the-elder-scrolls-6s-xbox-exclusivity-isnt-about-punishing-playstation

@AdamNovice I got the impression of the split being a result of EA cutting ties with FIFA given EA Sports FC is being revealed next month. EA's gigantic cash cow will be gone and it's unknown how big their replacement will get.

@Voltan Showcase season may have also played a role in increasing PS5 hardware sales.

I think the retro catalog is the key thing to improve, add more games (especially PS2) as well as figuring out someway to have a download option for PS3 games rather than having to rely on cloud streaming.

If you look at Persona 3 Reload, it wasn't confirmed for Switch but retailers have already leaked a Switch physical version suggesting that it will be announced for Switch in a Nintendo Direct.

There's probably a similar setup for this game too, that some event will reveal it to be coming to PS5 (maybe also Switch).

Even though the rest of the showcase was rather disappointing I had to rank it as good overall because of the 2nd Ace Attorney trilogy and the Ghost Trick demo shadow drop.

I think it's not really a case of Sony hiding stuff, more a result of the way the lineup is. Wolverine's likely the big single player 1st party PS5 game of 2024 (it was announced in 2021 and Spider-Man 2 is 2023) but naturally you wouldn't want to bring it up again until after Spider-Man 2 releases.

So pretty much I think the showcase is more an indicator that outside of a few live service games and a bunch of PC ports, Sony's already announced their 2023-2024 lineup.

I think this game will live or die based on its monetization approach. We all saw what happened with Chocobo GP, a promising Mario Kart alternative became dead on arrival when it was announced to go all in on microtransactions the same day Nintendo announced normal DLC for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

This gives the impression the rumoured detachable disc drive PS5 launching in September is real and it'll replace both current PS5 models. If you make the disc drive rare to obtain to the extent of the Kinect adapter for XB1S/XB1X, you've essentially got forced digital only PS5.

It was a good event, definitely better than the Playstation Showcase though it does really bring up the question why Sony chose to split their reveals between the showcase and Summer Game Fest instead of just having a strong showcase. Highlights were FFVII Rebirth, Sonic Superstars, Spider-Man 2 getting a release date and in general that games were getting a good amount of gameplay.

I think Summer Game Fest will answer all 7 questions in more detail so like question 1 was about release date so the end of the SGF segment it shows the specific release date (my guess would be December 7th or 14th 2023).

The marketing approach seems very questionable. You have all this promotion for FFXVI but then at the same time you do daily updates on FFVII Rebirth which is seemingly leading up to a Summer Game Fest trailer which'll massively steal the spotlight from FFXVI.

@Rob_230 Maybe the release date is on the earlier side of Winter 2023 like December, Square Enix did reveal FFXVI's release date 6 months before launch at the Game Awards.